Facing the reality of an ageing and shrinking world
Our resident Stats Guy takes a look at the latest UN world population data.
We've passed 'peak baby', now get ready for 'peak humanity'. Photo: TND/Getty
Every two years the United Nations Population Division in New York revises its World Population Prospect dataset (UN WPP 2024).
Whenever you see a global population forecast in the media, you can be almost certain it’s from this dataset. Of all global population institutes, the UN is not only the most prominent but also tends to be the most bullish about the total number of people on our planet in the future.
This is only the first of several columns that I will dedicate to this exciting dataset.
We will start with some major global insights before we dive deeper into regional and national narratives.
I wrote in the past about the concept of peak humanity. The UN WPP 2024 data suggests that the global human population will peak in 60 years.
By 2084 the UN expects the planet to be inhabited by another 2.2 billion people. This increase of 27 per cent compared to today sees peak humanity at under 10.3 billion.
We are already way past peak, baby. The population aged 0 reached its highest level in 2013 when 142 million babies were alive.
By the end of the century, the UN expects only 109 million babies. This drop of 22 per cent compared to the 2013 peak is a result of continuously dropping birth rates.
On a global level, birth rates and life expectancy are the two factors determining population size. On a national level, we also need to consider migration. We shall dive deeper into these three factors in future columns.
The global population of children (0-17) has already peaked too. In 2022, the planet was home to 2.4 billion children; by 2100, around 400 million fewer children (a drop of 16 per cent) will be around. If you grew up in the 1960s, 1970s, or even 1980s you got used to a young global human population.
Your country might show the first signs of ageing, but globally you knew of massive young populations in Africa and Asia.
This narrative is also slowly changing. By the end of the century, the share of the global underage population (0-17) is going to settle at about half of what it was after the post-World War II baby boom in the 1960s (20 per cent vs 40 per cent).
Let’s be generous and estimate the global working-age population as being aged between 18 and 69. This cohort will peak in 2075 – around a decade before we see peak humanity.
Year after year, we will see more countries join the club of shrinking workforces. We must establish new societal models that allow for economic prosperity and political stability when we can’t rely on more worker bees increasing national output. Australia and much of the developed world is already at this stage.
Relying on migrants to increase economic output is also increasingly difficult.
The migrant age population is about to peak very soon. The vast majority of voluntary global migration is aged 18 to 39. We will see the global peak of that cohort in only 21 years.
A small country like Australia could in theory continue to rely on migrants for longer than that to drive economic growth, but as the global competition for migrants increases it will certainly become more expensive to attract foreign workers.
The ageing population (aged 70-plus) will continue to increase year after year – with no end in sight.
The map below shows the countries that have already seen their population peak. Some Eastern European nations like Hungary and Bulgaria peaked before the fall of the Soviet Union while China started shrinking only in 2021 (according to the UN dataset that is based on official data – more about this in future columns).
Australia, alongside the US, Canada, and the Arab nations, belongs to a small club of rich countries that are projected to not peak before the end of this century.
Young migrants from across the world will continue to be drawn to economic opportunities in the rich world – bonus points if you offer democratic elections and personal freedoms.
This concludes our first quick look at the latest UN World Population Prospects. Check back in next week to see more detailed insights and critiques regarding one of my favourite datasets of all times.
Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher is a co-founder of The Demographics Group. His columns, media commentary and public speaking focus on current socio-demographic trends and how these impact Australia. His latest book aims to awaken the love of maps and data in young readers. Follow Simon on Twitter (X), Facebook, LinkedIn for daily data insights in short format.
