The International Monetary Fund delivered a downbeat prediction for the global economy in its latest outlook, according to AAP, warning high inflation coupled with financial system turmoil could bring near-recession conditions.

While Treasurer Jim Chalmers said last week that neither Treasury nor the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were expecting Australia to slip into recession, he did admit the economy is forecast to slow.

“We are better placed than most countries because of lower unemployment, because of the prices we’re getting for our exports and some of the other advantages we have,” he said.

The International Monetary Fund predicted Australia’s GDP growth would stall to 1.6 per cent this year, followed by a 1.7 per cent lift in 2024.

The forecasts were slightly ahead of those for the United States and Canada, while the United Kingdom economy was expected to shrink.

Dr Chalmers said each nation had its own combination of economic challenges.

“But as the IMF points out, we won’t be immune from a global slowdown,” he said.

In its latest article from the special situations team, BDO points to indicators that the economy is not as robust as the government might hope, including the fact that consumer confidence has consistently declined throughout 2022, and December 2022 saw lower levels of consumer sentiment than seen during the Global Financial Crisis.

It also reports that the RBA is increasing the target cash rate substantially faster than seen historically. Recent RBA research suggests that if interest rates reach 3.5 per cent, 15 per cent of all borrowers will have negative cash flows.

This is coupled with retail spending that has experienced unprecedented volatility over the past two years and the impacts on global supply chains caused by China’s stalling growth and rising COVID cases as well as the ongoing disruption and uncertainty caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Finally, Australia’s reliance on key global players like the United States, China and the United Kingdom requires us to be cognisant of factors impacting the global economy. Australia was able to insulate itself from the worst of the GFC but will it be the same this time?

Scott McMurdo, who is currently on secondment from BDO Australia with BDO’s Advisory team in New York, said that with high inflation, rising interest rates and a yield inversion of two-year and ten-year US treasury bonds, the US market is undoubtedly seeing several key economic indicators hint at a potential recession.

“These indicators, coupled with significant supply chain complexities, declining manufacturing activity and consumer confidence, have business leaders concerned,” he said.

“Management teams in the US are seeing a potential recession as not an ‘if’ but ‘when’ and have pivoted their focus and looking to their advisers as to how they can best prepare.”

Recession readiness for Australian businesses

Cash needs to be a key focus for resilient businesses looking to capitalise and weaker businesses looking to survive. For organisations in good financial standing, market turbulence creates opportunity — if they have the foresight and agility to seize it.

However, a downturn may require more defensive measures for organisations with tighter finances or high demand elasticity.

Building strategic resilience, or the capacity to withstand business shocks and pivot to new opportunities, early into an economic downcycle separates the businesses that thrive from those that struggle.

BDO’s Strategic Resilience Framework

Where is your business, and what needs to be your strategic focus?

BDO’s strategic resilience framework highlights that not every company is in the same place when it comes to the current economic environment.

Because of this, the operational or strategic focus point for every business will not be the same.

Our goal is to help companies recover from operational and strategic challenges and ensure they have the adequate tools to be able to thrive.

Business leaders should remember to seek opportunity in times of economic volatility.

Gauge your business’ resilience

Where is your business on this spectrum?

Liquidity and cash flow during times of recession

In a recessionary environment, cash and liquidity management needs to be the paramount concern of business leaders.

BDO’s Special Situations Advisory team can assist business leaders and other stakeholders in having the necessary liquidity and cash management tools to adapt to the challenges of the current economic environment.

How we can help

The BDO Special Situations Advisory team works closely with businesses, borrowers, lenders and stakeholders to provide tailored advisory solutions to navigate situations of financial distress, operational challenges and underperformance.

We have strong track record of obtaining results for clients. You can take confidence from our proven process, backed up by careful planning, effective communication and knowledge transfer to your stakeholders.

Working capital and cash flow modelling

Robust short-term cash flow forecasting is critical in the development of a strong cash culture. This culture leans on strong debt collection processes, sophisticated inventory management and well-negotiated account payable terms. We assist businesses develop three-way forecast models and help to identify working capital improvement opportunities that exist in all businesses to release cash flow pressures.

Debt advisory

Refinancing or obtaining new debt in the current environment can be challenging, as financiers seek to reduce risk and improve margins. Through BDO’s strong relationships with major banks, alternate and non-bank lenders, credit funds and private equity, we assist clients to source the right finance option for their current circumstances.

Distressed M&A

Buying and selling distressed businesses means overcoming a range of complex financial, legal and operational challenges under considerable time pressures. Working with our corporate finance team, we can conduct a fast-tracked, targeted M&A process to maximise the value of a business that is facing financial difficulty.

Pre-lend and independent business reviews

Assisting financiers with their due diligence by undertaking an assessment of the proposed borrower or reviewing an existing borrower. Using our expertise and experience, we critically analyse the financial position of the business, key drivers in their forecast and identify risks and mitigants to allow financiers to make an informed decision about their borrower.

Restructuring and turnaround advisory

Development of a turnaround plan to stabilise a business by identifying performance issues, cost-cutting initiatives, and revenue growth strategies. Turnaround plans need dependable financial scenarios supported by detailed operational planning to support decision making

Safe harbour

The safe harbour regime provides protection for directors of businesses in distress where they are pursuing a course of action that is likely to lead to a better outcome than an insolvency scenario. As part of this process, we assist clients to assess their current position, prepare a turnaround plan and monitor the implementation of the plan.