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SA’s economy defies the gloom merchants: Deloitte

Deloitte Access Economics has painted a relatively rosy picture of South Australia’s economy, with its latest business outlook report arguing the state is “confounding the critics”.

Jan 29, 2018, updated Jan 29, 2018
Construction has been identified as one of the bright spots in South Australia's economy. Photo: Tony Lewis/InDaily

Construction has been identified as one of the bright spots in South Australia's economy. Photo: Tony Lewis/InDaily

“South Australia is doing better than many people realise – much better,” the report says. “Although there are undoubted challenges, including in energy, and the car manufacturers only just shutting up shop, South Australia’s economy is growing at about its fastest rate for this decade so far.”

Deloitte’s optimism is based on looking beyond “headline hugging” negatives, such as the closure of Holden’s manufacturing plant, to the “less newsworthy positives”, notably business investment.

“After a dip in 2016, where business investment represented just a tenth of the State’s economy, South Australia is climbing out of the depths and into the light,” the report says. “In fact, at around 12% of the economy, business investment in South Australia is just shy of the Australian average – and that hasn’t been true for a long time.”

Small business confidence was at its best since 2013 and the new business survival rate was higher than any other state.

“This is all filtering through to jobs, where the news has been steadily getting better since mid-2015,” the report says. “In the final months of last year, South Australia’s full-time employment growth was beaten out only by the ACT.

“And while total job growth in the State wasn’t as high as in some States (only higher than Tasmania and the mining belt – Western Australia and Northern Territory), this equates to a fall in underemployment as part-time workers get upgraded to full-time positions.

“As a result, the unemployment rate in South Australia has also drifted downward.”

Deloitte says that, as a result, “it’s no surprise then that South Australia’s economy is growing at about its fastest rate for this decade so far”.

However, the report warns that South Australia faces “real” challenges, some of which are likely to grow.

These include population loss to other states, flow-on impacts from the end of automotive manufacturing and a flat housing market.

On the latter issue, Deloitte says housing construction is “a mixed bag, which is a disappointing result given that the State missed out on the huge construction boom seen elsewhere in recent years”.

While housing investment growth is positive, this is coming off a lower base than the national average. House prices are lower than all other states except Tasmania and, because average wages are also lower, the state has a middling performance in terms of housing affordability.

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Rents are “going backwards in South Australia, while they’re growing in the rest of the country”.

Engineering construction has some bright spots, despite being tamer than some of the eastern states, while the value of commercial construction increased over the past year.

The CommSec State of the States report, released today, was less bullish about South Australia, with the state easing from fourth to fifth in the regular ranking of economic performance.

Of the eight indicators, South Australia was ranked a middling fourth on half of these.

Housing and construction, retail, economic growth and business investment were identified as performing above the decade average, with population growth and unemployment among the negatives.

CommSec said that while South Australia dropped one place, “rather than weakening, it loses fourth position to a strengthening Tasmanian economy”.

Detail from the State of the States report.

The major parties sought to put their own spin on the data today.

Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis leapt upon the Deloitte Access Economics report, saying the finding on business confidence was “remarkable” given the shock to the supply chain businesses from the Holden closure.

“We are starting to see our direct investments in the economy have an impact,” he said.

Liberal industry spokesman Corey Wingard focused on the CommSec report.

“Alarmingly, South Australia ranks as the second and third worst state in the country for population growth and economic growth respectively,” he said.

“This inept and ineffective Weatherill Government has South Australia going backwards.”

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