At 12pm (AEDT) on Tuesday, the currency was trading at 68.83 US cents, down from 68.99 cents on Monday.
China’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2015 GDP figures are due to be released on Tuesday afternoon, which will be a key risk event for the currency.
Analysts have forecast that 2015 growth cooled to 6.9 per cent, down from 7.3 per cent in 2014 and the slowest pace in a quarter of a century.
St George senior economist Janu Chan said the Aussie will remain erratic while worries about China’s economy and renewed falls in commodity prices linger.
The currency has already had a rocky start to the year, hitting new seven-year lows on Monday.
“We expect that the Australian dollar will trade close to 70 US cents over the first half of this year, notwithstanding some volatility while markets remain on edge,” Chan said.
She tipped the Aussie to begin rising in the second half of 2016, as a recovery in the domestic economy takes holdThe S&P/ASX200 and All Ordinaries indices bounced between being slightly lower or slightly higher in early trade on Tuesday morning
Patersons Securities economist Tony Farnham said with Wall Street closed overnight for the Martin Luther King Day, the local bourse has had little direction.
He said the critical event on Monday was the release of a series of key Chinese data, including fourth quarter economic growth and December retail sales figures, at 1pm (AEDT).
“People are looking for signs of how the Chinese economy has been tracking,” Farnham said.
“There will be plenty for the market to mull over this afternoon.”
The mining sector was the biggest drag on the local market.
Rio Tinto’s iron ore shipments for 2015 disappointed investors after it narrowly missed its guidance of 340 million tonnes.
After an initial rise, shares in Rio Tinto fell 49 cents to $38.20.
BHP Billiton was five cents lower at $14.58, while Fortescue Metals was up $1.75 at $1.5725.
Among the better performers was toll road operator Transurban which gained seven cents to $10.16 after its first half revenue rose 18.4 per cent to $900 million following a big rise in journeys for its December quarter.
The big four banks were mixed with ANZ up one cent at $24.42, National Australia Bank up 16 cents at $26.85, Westpac 26 cents lower at $39.86, and Commonwealth Bank down eight cents at $78.31.
At 7am (AEDT) on Tuesday, the local unit was trading at 68.61 US cents, down from 68.99 cents on Monday.
Westpac strategist Imre Speizer said markets were calmer overnight with the US out for a national holiday.
He said Tuesday’s market highlight should be China’s fourth quarter gross domestic product report, with the median estimate being 6.9 per cent growth.
“Near-term support (for the Australian dollar) at 68.30 US cents remains vulnerable but much will depend on the complexion of the Chinese data today,” Speizer said.
ANZ senior manager FX Sam Tuck said China’s December retails sales and industrial production numbers would also be released.
“We’re also looking to that for direction,” he said.
“But China’s `fear index’ is running a hell of a lot higher than the data suggests it should.”
Tuck said early January figures from the world’s second-largest economy were somewhat reasonable.
“The service sector increased and manufacturing slightly increased but missed expectations,” he said.
“We’re looking for a little bit more stability to continue.”
Markets would also keep an eye on China’s daily currency fix on Tuesday and global equity markets as Wall Street resumed trading, Tuck said.
At 6.45am (AEDT) on Tuesday, the share price index was down 35 points at 4,782.
Locally, in economic news on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to release November lending finance figures while the ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence survey is also expected.
Deloitte is slated to release its predictions for 2016 and HSBC has an economics briefing.
In equities news, Rio Tinto is expected to release its fourth quarter production report, while AMCIL is slated to post half year financial results.
In Australia, the market on Monday fell amid heightened concerns about the Chinese economy following major falls on international markets.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 34.1 points, or 0.7 per cent, lower at 4,858.7.
The broader All Ordinaries index was down 36.7 points, or 0.7 per cent, at 4911.8 points.
ASX stocks to watch Tuesday, January 19
BHP – BHP BILLITON – up 6.00 cents, or 0.41 per cent, at $14.69
The mining company responsible for Latin America’s biggest environmental tragedy knew since 2013 its dam in southeast Brazil was at risk of bursting, according to a media report.
BHP – BHP BILLITON – up 6.00 cents, or 0.41 per cent, at $14.69
FMG – FORTESCUE METALS GROUP – up 1.00 cent, or 0.64 per cent, at $1.565
RIO – RIO TINTO – up 4.00 cents, or 0.10 per cent, at $38.73
Miners could see a lift in their share price on Tuesday with the iron ore price lifting back above the $US40 mark.
CIM – CIMIC – down 47.00 cents, or 1.98 per cent, at $23.27
DVN – DEVINE – last traded at 70 cents
Residential property developer Devine has appointed Andrew Cooper as chief executive on a three-year contract.
ORG – ORIGIN – down 9.00 cents, or 2.36 per cent, at $3.73
OSH – OILSEARCH – down 6.00 cents, or 1.00 per cent, at $5.95
STO – SANTOS – down 5.00 cents, or 1.9 per cent, at $2.58
WPL – WOODSIDE PETROLEUM – down 28.00 cents, or 1.07 per cent, at $26.01
Energy stocks could be in for another hit with oil prices again suffering after the lifting of sanctions against producer Iran further exacerbated fears over the world glut.
RIO – RIO TINTO – up 4.00 cents, or 0.10 per cent, at $38.73
Mining giant Rio Tinto has shipped 11 per cent more iron ore in 2015, helped by the expansion of its Pilbara infrastructure, but has narrowly fallen short of its full year guidance of 340 million tonnes.
SDM – SEDGMAN – up 0.50 cents, or 0.47 per cent, at $1.075
Takeover target Sedgman expects to more than double its first half profit and has promised shareholders a special dividend.
TCL – TRANSURBAN – up 15.00 cents, or 1.49 per cent, at $10.24
Toll road operator Transburban has lifted first half revenue 18.4 per cent to $900 million following a big rise in journeys for its December quarter.
AAP
