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Record fourth-year of losses tipped for $A

Business

The Australian dollar is set for a third consecutive year in the red as 2015 draws to a close and could reach a post-float record of pain if the tailspin continues next year.

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ThinkForex senior market analyst Matt Simpson says the Aussie is almost certain to achieve its second three-year downward run since it was floated in 1983.

He says in recent weeks the resilient currency has put up a good fight above multi-year lows and has aptly been nicknamed `the battler’.

“But with commodities continuing to nose-dive and the greenback likely to strengthen, it seems only a matter of time before the bearish trend resumes,” Simpson said.

“Going into 2016 we have the (US Federal Reserve) talking a hawkish game to provide further support for the greenback, which appears ready to break to multi-year highs.”

A bolstered US dollar and China’s declining import markets will only weigh on commodity prices further, which are showing no signs of bottoming out, he said.

And while the Reserve Bank looks to have “chilled out” on interest rates, cuts are not out of the question next year, Simpson said.

The central bank is likely to retain its easing bias into 2016 as it takes domestic data and the US Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle into account.

“Any whiff of dovishness from (the) RBA will see bearish traders returning to the table and pushing the Aussie to fresh new lows,” he said.

Despite the gloomy outlook, Simpson tips the Aussie to hold above 60 US cents throughout 2016 and expects it to close next year at around 63 to 64 US cents.

AAP

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