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Market report: Monday, December 21

UPDATED: The Australian dollar has reversed early losses from Friday following a bounce in metal prices and a weaker greenback.

Dec 21, 2015, updated Dec 21, 2015

At noon (AEDT) on Monday, the currency was trading at 71.58 US cents, up from 71.41 cents on Friday.

OANDA Australia and Asia Pacific senior trader Stephen Innes said there are little major calendar events coming up.

“So unless there’s a sudden shift in market dynamics within the commodity bloc of currencies, it might be a fairly quiet week,” he said.

But Mr Innes warned that liquidity is expected to deteriorate substantially in the coming days.

“So be on guard for sharper knee-jerk moves,” he said.

“Traders are still coming to terms with the US Fed hike and what the future has in store, while analysts continue to fret about global growth prospects.”The March share price index futures contract was down 40 points at 5,021.

In Australia, the market on Friday finished slightly higher as strength in banking stocks helped pare back earlier losses.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 4.7 points, or 0.09 per cent, higher at 5,106.7.

The broader All Ordinaries index was up 5.9 points, or 0.11 per cent, at 5,156.5.

NEW YORK – US stocks have closed lower for the second straight day as concerns, ranging from a decline in crude oil prices to the global response to the Federal Reserve’s interest hike, weighed down the market.

The expiration of stock and index options contracts added volatility on Friday in a heavy trading volume day.

The S&P and Dow had their worst two-day performance since September 1, while indexes posted losses for the week.

“It’s a confluence of all the factors: oil prices continuing to run down, the Chinese trying to counteract the US dollar and everyone is digesting, globally, what the Fed’s announcement means for emerging markets and everything else,” said JJ Feldman, portfolio manager at Miracle Mile Advisors in Los Angeles.

The week was dominated by the Fed, which raised rates on Wednesday for the first time in nearly a decade.

LONDON – European shares fell in volatile trade on Friday, giving up most of the Fed-inspired gains of the previous session as investors took profits before
the holiday season.

European stocks had rallied on Thursday as investors took the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates as a sign of confidence in the world’s biggest economy.

“Thursday’s rally was a bit overdone and investors are taking profit as they prepare for the holiday,” said Stephan Rieke, senior economist at BHF-BANK in Frankfurt.

“Looking forward, I expect volatility to persist in the coming sessions, but the market could gain some strength as we move into 2016,” he added.

TOKYO – Asian shares have taken their cue from Wall Street and slipped, but were still on track for gains in a week marked by a depreciating yuan in China and the first US interest rate rise in nearly a decade.

By contrast, Taiwan’s central bank cut interest rates for the second time this year and said it would keep monetary policy loose to shore up growth in the island’s trade-dependent economy as the global demand outlook worsened.

Investors turned cautious about what a stronger US dollar and weak commodity prices could mean for the world economy, as a clutch of central banks moved to cushion the impact of the first US rate rise in nearly a decade.

RIO DE JANEIRO/SAO PAULO – A judge in Brazil’s state of Minas Gerais has frozen the Brazilian assets of mining giants BHP Billiton and Vale SA after determining their joint venture Samarco was unable to pay for damage caused by the bursting of a dam at its mine last month.

FRANKFURT – Volkswagen plans to limit the time staff can remain in certain roles, its supervisory board chairman told a German weekly, in a step to improve oversight at the German carmaker.

NAIROBI – The World Trade Organization has reached deals on agricultural export subsidies, food aid and other issues, capping a ministerial conference in the Kenyan capital which Australian Trade Minister Andrew Robb praised as “remarkable and historic”.

WASHINGTON – US lawmakers have approved a $US1.1 trillion ($A1.55 trillion) budget bill and President Barack Obama has signed the measure into law in a last-minute move to avoid a shutdown of the US government before congress adjourns for the year.

ENERGY

Global crude oil prices resumed its retreat following a rebound of almost 1 percent after the US benchmark traded well below $US35 a barrel.

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The reverse in prices came on news the US oil rig count rose for the first time in five weeks. Seventeen rigs were added in the week ended Friday despite continued weak crude prices, which suggests no end in sight to the supply glut.

Prices on US Treasuries rose in choppy trading on rising investor skepticism over the Fed’s ability to raise interest rates as much as it would like next year.

The decline in crude and tumbling stock markets encouraged investors to seek the relative safety of US government debt.

The slide in oil prices suggests inflation will remain benign.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold rose more than one per cent on Friday, recovering from its biggest daily loss in five months as the US dollar retreated, but remained near multi-year lows after the Federal Reserve lifted US interest rates.

The metal has recovered some lost ground after bottoming out on Thursday at $US1,047.25 an ounce, within a couple dollars of a near six-year low reached on December 3, after the first US rate hike in nearly a decade.

Rising rates lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

“There are big volatile swings but the overall tone is still lower,” said Bill O’Neill, co-founder of commodities investment firm Logic Advisors in New Jersey.

BASE METALS

Copper prices jumped on Friday as the US dollar weakens, and rumours of potential stockpile purchases in China, but still scored a modest weekly decline.

Lead prices also rallied after a drop in available inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses.

LME industrial metals gained across the board as the dollar index fell, making commodities priced in the currency more competitive for buyers outside the United States.

Some investors seemed to be starting to square their books, a process which could pick up before the year end.

“Typically, everybody squares off at year end, but I think a lot of people are leaving it to the last week,” said Wiktor Bielski, head of commodities research at VTB Capital.

ASX stocks to watch on Monday

A2M – A2 MILK – up 35 cents, or 33.82 per cent, at $1.385: Shares in the A2 Milk Company have surged after it lifted its profit forecasts due to high demand in China and Australia for its infant formula.

SGH – SLATER AND GORDON – down six cents, or 6.74 per cent, at 83.0 cents: Slater and Gordon shares are suffering another day of falls after losing 17 per cent on Thrusday when the company dumped its earnings guidance for this financial year due to its UK business performing below expectations.

AAP

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