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All eyes on Reserve Bank interest rate call

The Reserve Bank board will reveal this afternoon whether it has hiked interest rates again or repeated last month’s pause, with two big banks expecting no shift today while one tips an immediate increase.

May 02, 2023, updated May 02, 2023
Image: Tom Aldahn/InDaily

Image: Tom Aldahn/InDaily

More pain for borrowers can’t be ruled out as the Reserve Bank board meets for its May interest rate decision.

The central bank kept interest rates steady in April after surging inflation prompted 10 hikes in a row.

Economists and analysts are divided on which way it will go.

Three of the big four banks expect the cash rate to stay at 3.6 per cent in May, with neither Westpac nor NAB anticipating further increases.

CBA economists are predicting one more hike on Tuesday afternoon and ANZ thinks there will be one final lift in August.

The shadow board of economists at the Australian National University believes another 0.25 percentage point hike is the most likely scenario.

But they acknowledged “a degree of uncertainty” before the May decision following surprising upbeat jobs data and signs of resilience among businesses and consumers.

Sinking March quarter inflation – falling from 7.8 per cent in the March quarter to seven per cent – may give the RBA board confidence to leave the cash rate unchanged for another month.

But some sources of inflation are proving persistent, such as rent and energy.

-AAP

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