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Labor leading in SA, Xenophon faces challenge in new poll

Labor has a dominant two-party lead in SA ahead of the forthcoming federal election – while attempted comeback kid Nick Xenophon faces a tough battle returning to the senate, according to a new statewide poll.

Apr 08, 2022, updated Apr 08, 2022
Nick Xenophon is seeking a political comeback. Photo: Tracey Nearmy / AAP

Nick Xenophon is seeking a political comeback. Photo: Tracey Nearmy / AAP

The uComms data, commissioned by the Greens and conducted from a telephone survey of 1052 residents in SA on Tuesday night, gauged statewide voting intentions in both the House of Representatives and Senate ahead of the federal election, which is set to be called imminently.

The poll found Labor leading the Coalition with more than 39 per cent of the first-preference vote to 33.2 per cent.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor led 58 per cent to 42, with 67.3 per cent of people who nominated minor parties or independents saying they would preference the ALP higher than the Liberals.

It follows another uComms poll published this week, commissioned by The Australia Institute, showing the Liberals trailing in two crucial SA seats, Boothby and Sturt.

The polling continues a strong showing for Labor in the state that saw Peter Malinauskas seize power in last month’s state election with a more-than 7 per cent swing.

In the senate, Labor’s 36.1 per cent could see the ALP pushing for three SA seats if the result is replicated on polling day.

The Greens will be buoyed by the data, which showed the minor party on 11.6 per cent of the statewide vote – on track for a quota after preferences.

But former senator Xenophon, who quit the senate to run a failed state campaign at the 2018 election, is currently languishing on just 5.2 per cent according to the poll – well down on his 2016 high-watermark, at which his NXT party won three senate seats in a double-dissolution election.

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A candidate would need to garner around 14 per cent of the vote after preferences to reach a quota.

Xenophon’s former staffer turned rival Rex Patrick sits on 3 per cent, while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation – whose SA leader Jennifer Game is contesting as lead senate candidate – is on 3.9 per cent.

The Greens are eyeing the chance for a second SA senator to return to Canberra to join incumbent Sarah Hanson-Young, with labour economist Professor Barbara Pocock this week formally launching her bid.

The author and Emeritus Professor at UniSA’s Business School, who has been a member of the state’s Economic Development Board, said she wanted to see “strong action on climate change, the protection of our river and Bight, and more integrity in our political system, including a strong ICAC and election funding reform”.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.02 per cent.

However, it’s understood internal Labor Party polling puts Xenophon in a far more comfortable position. Respondents to a poll conducted before the former Senator confirmed his intention to run again gave him a 93.6 per cent recognition factor, with 16.3 per cent of respondents saying they would give him their first preference if he stood again.

That poll had Labor on 30.8 per cent, the Liberals on 27.7, Greens on 8.9 and One Nation on 5.2.

It found Labor and the Liberals would lose some of that primary support if Xenophon ran – but One Nation’s vote strangely increased to 6.9 per cent in the hypothetical scenario.

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