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Health chief defends keeping SA COVID modelling under wraps

Detailed COVID modelling guiding the Marshall Government’s Omicron response will not be released publicly because “most people can’t understand it”, the chief of SA Health has told a parliamentary committee – inviting members of the public to lodge Freedom of Information requests for the data “if they’re suspicious enough”.

Feb 04, 2022, updated Feb 04, 2022
SA Health CEO Dr Chris McGowan. Photo: Tony Lewis/InDaily

SA Health CEO Dr Chris McGowan. Photo: Tony Lewis/InDaily

The modelling, conducted by University of Adelaide researchers, predicted the Omicron wave to peak in late January and was used as the basis for the Government’s “hybrid” return to school model and easing of elective surgery restrictions and work from home advice.

But while the modelling has been spelled out by Premier Steven Marshall in broad terms, the specific data has not been released – unlike the same researchers’ previous modelling of the impact of opening state borders to the Delta variant.

In a parliamentary committee examining the state’s COVID response, Health boss Dr Chris McGowan yesterday was asked when the public would “be given access to the full updated modelling from the University of Adelaide”.

“I think it is the intention of the Government to make, in general terms, the modelling available,” he replied.

He noted that chief public health officer Professor Nicola Spurrier had released a video “describing the modelling”, adding that it was “not necessarily that accessible to people who aren’t really familiar with these modelling instruments”.

“But there’s a lot of it and it can be pretty technical so it’s not my intention to release the entirety of all the models … on a regular basis,” he said.

“It is our intention to provide, from time to time, particularly the modelling that underpins significant decisions… that modelling would be made public so the community can see the basis on which decisions are based in a totally open and transparent way [but] I don’t think it would be a productive use of anyone’s time to release the full gamut of modelling that we get.”

Committee members were unconvinced, but McGowan insisted releasing the data would not be beneficial “just because there’s a lot of it” and “most people can’t understand it”.

“It usually requires a bit of explanation [and] can be taken out of context,” he said, but conceded: “The community have a right to see the modelling on which key decisions are made.”

Labor MP Ian Hunter argued that while the previous modelling data was released as a 20-page document, the Omicron data was released in more rudimentary terms.

“There’s a very big difference between the two [and] some people would think you might be suppressing detail for not very good reasons,” he said.

“Some people are going to be suspicious about your motivation.”

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To which McGowan replied: “If they’re suspicious enough they can FOI it” – meaning people could lodge a Freedom of Information request with his department.

“I’ve got a team of people who are pretty flat out doing a lot of things at the moment – if people want to FOI it they’re welcome to,” he said.

Hunter shot back: “That sounds like a very petulant answer to me.”

“Noted,” McGowan replied.

The Health chief said there was “a lot of” data and “to produce it all and put it into context would take a lot of our work”.

Hunter argued that SA Health already had FOI requests outstanding for more than a year, saying it “doesn’t fill one with hope”.

In a terse exchange, McGowan said: “You might have missed that we’re managing a global pandemic at the moment [so] that’s not a priority.”

Hunter retaliated: “You might have missed you’re in fact in front of the parliamentary committee on COVID with oversight of your actions.”

Spurrier told the committee SA was “definitely past the [Omicron] peak and we’re on the decay of the curve”, but that the return to school would impact case numbers in coming days.

“The expectation is we will have continuing drop of numbers [but] the behaviours of what’s occurred this week will see a plateauing of that decay and then a slower decay over time,” she said.

“We’d be expecting a slight rise in paediatric [hospital] admissions over a month or so… but we have a very low rate of paediatric admissions anyway for Omicron.”

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