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World shares stabilise as September storms relent

A savage start to September has eased for global share markets and oil prices, while bonds rallied on hopes of US rate cuts.

Sep 06, 2024, updated Sep 06, 2024

World share and oil prices have stabilised after savage starts to September, while the yen climbed to a one-month high and government bond markets rallied as investors stuck with rate-cut trades.

The storms, which have wiped off more than $US2 trillion ($A3 trillion) from global stock markets and battered commodities, had eased just enough to mean Europe’s main bourses were able to hold their ground early on Thursday after losing nearly 2 per cent in recent days.

German industrial orders data came in stronger than expected, euro zone retail sales figures were in line with forecasts and a flurry of key US data was due both later and on Friday in the form of non-farm payrolls.

Bets the US Federal Reserve might start its long-awaited rate-cutting cycle with a bumper half-point move in September kept the dollar on defensive.

The Japanese yen, which has surged nearly 2 per cent this week, remained the biggest beneficiary.

It hit a one-month high of 143.20 per dollar overnight before shuffling back to 143.61 in European trading.

In the debt markets, euro zone bond yields fell for a third straight session and US Treasury yields were at 3.765 per cent as investors continued to worry about the health of the key global economies.

Data on Wednesday had showed US job openings fell to their lowest level in three-and-a-half years in July.

Markets are pricing in a 44 per cent chance of a 50-basis point Fed cut at the bank’s September 17-18 meeting and 110 bps of easing before the end of 2024.

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“The market is jittery,” Jefferies analyst Mohit Kumar said.

But “we are keeping our modest long in risky assets despite recent moves. We do not see the (US) economy slowing down as much as feared.”

China’s economy is still badly spluttering too despite a sequence of stimulus efforts, including for its long-troubled property market.

Wednesday had seen heavyweight investment bank JPMorgan throw in the towel on its long-held bullish call on Chinese stocks, although the reaction from the country’s blue chips on Thursday was a modest rise.

Commodities traders were also licking their wounds.

Oil clawed back above $US73 a barrel having slumped more than 7 per cent since the start of September.

The price of copper, a bellwether metal, inched back up towards $US9000 having plunged almost 20 per cent since May.

“September has historically been a challenging month for risk assets,” said Daniel Tan, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at Grasshopper Asset Management.

Wall Street stock futures were also pointing to a fractionally higher restart.

Investors’ focus will be on how “Magnificent Seven” darling Nvidia fares after its recent beating and the day’s services sector and jobless claims data.

San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said on Wednesday the Fed needed to cut interest rates to keep the labour market healthy, and incoming economic data would determine by how much.

Topics: shares
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