Oh yes, yes, I know the equation. A draw against Jordan in this evening’s match in Sydney will be enough to ensure the Socceroos get through to the next round of World Cup qualifiers.

In fact, even with a loss they’ll probably survive. The four best second-placed teams in the eight qualifying groups still go through to the next phase and only an extraordinary sequence of results in other matches would knock Australia out.

But our players must accept nothing less than victory tonight. Even a draw might result in a tough qualifying group in the next round.

Two months ago I wrote that Australia’s FIFA ranking was about to drop and that the Socceroos would go from fourth in Asia to sixth. And that if we didn’t get back into the top four, we risked getting two of Iran, Japan and South Korea in our next group.

You have to finish in the top two of your group in the next phase of Asian qualifying to guarantee a place in the the World Cup finals so being drawn with two of those three heavyweights would give us the toughest possible route to Russia.

The good news is that a combination of results since then and ranking points that have expired mean Australia (currently sixth in Asia) will move to either second or third in the region with a win over Jordan.

But there’s a snag. Saudi Arabia will go to second in Asia if it defeats United Arab Emirates later this evening.

What would that mean? Well, if all other results are as expected, the final Asian rankings before the next draw is made will look like this: 1 Iran, 2 Saudi Arabia, 3 Australia, 4 South Korea, 5 Japan, 6 Uzbekistan.

Each group in the next phase of qualifying will get one team ranked 1 or 2, one ranked 3 or 4, one ranked 5 or 6 and so on.

Under the scenario shown above, Australia could still draw Iran and Japan. There’d be a 50 per cent chance of UAE joining the party too – remember how well that team did to finish third in last year’s Asian Cup?

One thing is certain, a draw against Jordan is not enough… it would keep the Socceroos outside of Asia’s top four no matter what happens elsewhere.

To underline how influential tonight’s games are, if the UAE v Saudi match is a draw (and all other results are as expected), Asia’s rankings will be: 1 Iran, 2 Australia, 3 South Korea, 4 Japan, 5 Saudi Arabia, 6 Uzbekistan.

And then we’d be able to breathe a little more easily. The draw for the next round would keep Iran and Australia apart and only one of South Korea and Japan could land in our group.

There are many permutations but one thing is certain, a draw against Jordan is not enough. It would keep the Socceroos outside of Asia’s top four no matter what happens elsewhere.

Socceroos coach Ange Postecoglou addresses his players at training ahead of tonight’s World Cup Qualifier against Jordan. Photo: Mick Tsikas, AAP.

You might be asking why we shouldn’t fear Saudi Arabia given that it’s a win short of being ranked second in Asia.

The Saudis aren’t easy opponents, especially on their home patch, however the rankings are currently overrating them (or underrating Japan and South Korea).

In the last twelve months (which count for 50 per cent of ranking points), the Saudis have six wins and a draw and all those games have been qualifiers – like Australia, they haven’t played friendlies in the last year.

But South Korea and Japan have played friendlies over that period and this is one of the absurd aspects of FIFA’s rankings: they hurt you.

One of the criteria for calculating a game’s ranking points is its “importance” and a World Cup qualifier is 2.5 times more important than a friendly.

The points from each game are then averaged out so even if you’re winning friendlies they’re dragging that average down.

Example: if the Socceroos beat 82nd-ranked Jordan tonight, they get 752 points. If the match were a friendly, a win would only be worth 301. Victory over the top team (currently Belgium) in a game that isn’t part of a genuine competition, like the FIFA World Cup or the Confederations Cup, would be worth just 552.

Now let’s say Australia’s average points per match this year is 600 (it’s not but go with me on this), a win in a friendly, even against the top team on the planet, would mean a reduction in ranking points. Throw in that you get zero for a loss and you start to wonder if they’re really worth playing in certain periods of the World Cup cycle.

There are plenty of other reasons to win this evening – just ask coach Ange Postecoglou, not a noted fan of the rankings. During last year’s Asian Cup, when the Socceroos were 100th in the world, he said, “I’m sure there’s some bloke at FIFA who does the rankings who has a headache right now trying to work out how a team ranked as low as we are can play that type of football, but that’s life.”

He’s continued in that vein in the lead up to tonight’s game, though he did say: “I’ll let other people worry about results and top of the table and seeds.”

I’m happy to be one of those other people, Boss.