The Kennett Curse is completely illogical, founded partly on an urban myth and meaningless in this uber-professional AFL era.
But it’s as real an opponent for Hawthorn in Friday night’s blockbuster preliminary final against Geelong as Joel Selwood or Tom Hawkins.
Before the Hawks have a shot at realising their destiny with a second premiership in the Alastair Clarkson era, they must end The Curse.
Since the start of 2009, Geelong have racked up an astonishing 11-game winning streak against Hawthorn.
Friday night will be the biggest game between these two teams since the streak started.
It’s not like the Cats have some special advantage over Hawthorn – the largest margin in those 11 games has been 31 points, while nine of the wins have been by 10 points or less.
This is the illogical bit. Purely on law of averages, Hawthorn should have won at least a couple.
How often would a coin toss come up “heads” 11 times in a row?
But like any good curse, you have to know the history to understand its potency.
In 2008, Geelong were a machine.
After ending their 44-year premiership drought the year before with a record grand final-winning margin, the Cats lost only once through the season.
They rampaged into the grand final against Hawthorn and were overwhelming favourites.
But Hawthorn caught them off balance and scored a stunning 26-point win.
Former Geelong player Cameron Mooney says that for all the joy of their ’07, ’09 and ’11 premierships, playing in that grand final loss still hurts.
Which brings us to the urban myth.
Soon after losing the grand final, it was said that Geelong players made a pact that they would never lose to Hawthorn again.
But former players such as Cameron Ling have said this year that no such pledge was struck.
What definitely happened in early 2009 was a TV interview featuring then-Hawks president Jeff Kennett.
Never regarded as a shrinking violet, the former Victorian premier gave one of the most famous quotes in AFL history.
“They don’t have the psychological drive that we have. We have beaten Geelong when it matters,” Kennett said.
Oops.
Geelong won their round-one 2009 game by eight points and the streak was born.
Kennett, who resigned as president two years ago, was at it again after round one this season.
Following the narrow April Fools’ Day loss to Geelong, Kennett furiously declared on radio that Clarkson should resign as coach by the end of this season or be sacked.
Within a couple of days, Kennett made a public apology.
Kennett has been notable for his media silence in the lead-up to Friday night’s big match.
“What would you say? He’s a character of a bloke in the way he expresses himself,” says former Geelong president Frank Costa.
The streak has produced some outstanding football – constant lead changes, Jimmy Bartel’s frequent big-moment heroics and Hawkins’ booming goal after the siren to win their round-19 clash last season.
Friday night could well be the game of the season.
Hawthorn have lost only three times this season – twice to the Cats of course – and boast red-hot form.
They belted defending premiers Sydney in the second half of their qualifying final and they will regain stars Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli.
After last year’s upset grand final loss to Sydney, they burn with motivation.
The Cats will be without Corey Enright and Paul Chapman, two of their most important players, and do not look nearly as strong.
But as Costa points out, Geelong have beaten all the other top four teams this season.
In fact, they’re the only preliminary finals team to have done so.
“I still have a quiet feeling we can get up … I still reckon we can do it, but it’s not going to be easy,” Costa says.
“I just know our players can do it.”
And that’s the secret of the curse.
Hawthorn should win. But if there’s nothing in it and it’s late in the last term, the Cats will just know they can make it 12 in a row.
FRIDAY
Hawthorn v Geelong at MCG 7.20pm
Head to Head: Hawks 67 Cats 84 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 15 2013 – Cats 11.16 (82) bt Hawks 10.12 (72) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Hawks $1.43 Cats $2.85
Sportingbet: Hawks $1.38 Cats $3.10
Five years, 11 games – Hawthorn’s losing streak against Geelong has become legendary. But if the Hawks can break a run of outs which stretches back to the 2008 grand final, they’ll be able to say the two wins that bookended the defeats were the two most important. With a spot in the grand final up for grabs, Hawthorn have never been better placed. Dangerous Cyril Rioli and Lance Franklin return from injury and suspension, while the Cats are without important veterans Corey Enright and Paul Chapman for the same reasons.
Key: Franklin’s one-match suspension for a clumsy bump could have proved costly for Hawthorn, but wasn’t. So the spearhead owes the Hawks a big one. No better time or bigger stage to do it. Particularly since Geelong defender Tom Lonergan has had his measure in most of their recent meetings.
Tip: Hawks by 22 points
