The analysis, published by The Australian today, shows that the switch from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison in August has cost the party dearly in all states, with South Australia leading the way.
The August-October figures show federal Labor leading the Liberals 58-42 in South Australia – a nine percentage point turnaround since July-August when Newspoll had the federal Coalition leading Labor in this state 51-49.
The change in federal leadership has shifted South Australia from the Coalition’s strongest state to its weakest.
The Coalition is in worse shape in every state after Turnbull was forced out, with Labor set to take a swathe of seats in the key state of Queensland. Up to 10 seats are potentially at play in Queensland.
The analysis shows a 5.7 per cent swing against the Coalition in South Australia since the 2016 election.
The Liberals’ most at-risk Adelaide seat is Boothby, with Nicolle Flint holding the southern suburban seat by a margin of 2.8 per cent after a redistribution this year.
The Liberal-held rural seat of Grey is notionally more marginal against the Centre Alliance (formerly Nick Xenophon Team), with Rowan Ramsey holding it by 1.9 per cent (8.5 per cent against the ALP).
The electoral cost of changing Prime Ministers will be front and centre in Canberra today, with Coalition MPs expected to vent their anger at a partyroom meeting over the likely Wentworth by-election loss.
A staunch Malcolm Turnbull supporter, Craig Laundy, has publicly blamed those pushing for a change of leadership in August for the expected loss in Turnbull’s vacated seat.
However, conservative colleague Craig Kelly says Turnbull was largely to blame for not assisting in the campaign to elect candidate Dave Sharma.
“That could have helped, that could have turned the tide,” Kelly told 2GB radio.
Cabinet minister Mathias Cormann said Turnbull had lost the confidence of his party, but an “orderly transition” to a new leader would have been better than a second partyroom ballot, as occurred on August 24.
Some government members are urging greater action on climate change and getting asylum seeker children off Nauru.
However, they are being resisted by pro-coal MPs and those arguing offshore processing remains crucial to stopping the boats.
The debate is expected to spill over into question time, which was cancelled on Monday out of respect for victims and survivors of child sexual abuse who received a long-awaiting national apology from Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.
Labor is also questioning whether the Coalition has what it takes to manage a minority-held parliament, with the loss of Wentworth stripping the government’s numbers to 75 in the 150-seat parliament.
– with AAP
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