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Market report: Monday, January 25

UPDATED: The Australian dollar has slumped despite an oil-fuelled rally on global stock markets.

Jan 25, 2016, updated Aug 29, 2019

At noon (AEDT) on Monday, the currency was trading at 69.88 US cents, down from 70.25 cents on Friday.

Oil rebounded while the European and Japan central banks hinted at further stimulus last week, which lifted risk sentiment, Atlantic Pacific Securities client adviser Gary Huxtable said.

“(This) has provided a short-term reprieve for what so far this year can be described as a nervous and punishing market,” he said.Locally, in economic news on Monday, the National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey for December is due out.

No major equities news is expected.

The Australian share market has gained about 1 per cent as more buyers look to snap up value stocks following a positive lead from overseas and a rise in oil prices.

Three of the big four banks were up two per cent, with Commonwealth Bank not far behind in percentage terms, gaining more than 1.5 per cent.

Origin Energy, Santos and Woodside Petroleum all made strong gains after oil prices jumped back above $US32 a barrel overnight, while Atlas Iron gained more than seven per cent following a rise in the price of iron ore.

The positive sentiment didn’t extend as far as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, however, with both mining giants falling.

Earlier today, ANZ economists said the European Central Bank left rates on hold last week, renewing hopes of additional stimulus.

“The turnaround in market sentiment post-ECB continued, with oil prices surging and equities rallying,” they said.

US and European shares finished one to three per cent higher, while Brent crude rose 10 per cent.

“Oil prices recorded their biggest two-day gain since 2009, from low levels of course,” ANZ economists said.

ANZ tipped the market to tread water ahead of domestic inflation figures due for release on Wednesday.

At 8.30am (AEDT) on Monday, the March 2016 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 97.260 (implying a yield of 2.740 per cent), down from 97.270 (2.730 per cent) on Friday.

The March 2016 three-year bond futures contract was at 98.050 (1.950 per cent), down from 98.060 (1.940 per cent).

NEW YORK – US stocks have made their biggest gain in more than a month as oil prices surge, lifting energy stocks.

Tech stocks also climbed on Friday as Apple jumped the most since August.

Energy companies soared after the price of US crude jumped 9 per cent.

Oil prices reached their lowest level in 12 years earlier in the week, but they jumped the past two days.

The gain on Friday, combined with a smaller increase the day before, gave the market its first weekly advance after three weeks of declines.

LONDON – Britain’s top share index has recorded its first weekly gain for 2016, as a respite to the slump in the oil price lifted the shares of major energy companies.

“In the short term, the FTSE’s commodities-led rally has legs and we cannot rule out a move towards 6,000 in the coming sessions,” said Jawaid Afsar, senior trader at Securequity.

“However, its medium and longer-term remain uncertain as some serious damage has been done to its technical outlook. The FTSE is still flirting around its ‘bear market’ territory and a fall below 5,800 could lead to a slump towards the 5,200-5,300 area,” he added.

HONG KONG – Asian stocks had their best day in three months, a day after ECB President Mario Draghi signalled the central bank would ease policy further at its March meeting to combat fading growth and disinflation.

Investors seized on Draghi’s comments and bet the Bank of Japan might also ease policy further and the Federal Reserve will go slow in raising US rates this year.

“With inflation so low, it would be strange if central banks didn’t do more in the face of such market turmoil and elevated risk factors,” said Deutsche Bank’s John Reid.

“It won’t be a major growth stimulant but any extra liquidity provided will have to go somewhere, so it’s too early to say the central bank era of elevating asset prices is over,” he said.

DAVOS – Financial markets need more clarity on how Chinese authorities are managing their currency, particularly the relationship of the yuan to the US dollar, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde says.

MOSCOW – The Russian government has set aside 135 billion roubles ($A2.4 billion) to help the real economy in a draft anti-crisis plan, senior officials have revealed, and may use a separate 340 billion rouble cushion to dampen social discontent.

TEHRAN – Iran has unveiled an expanded shopping list for more than 160 European planes – including eight superjumbos – and dangled another big order in front of Boeing at Tehran’s first major post-sanctions business gathering.

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ENERGY

Oil, which has tumbled during a recent rout in world markets, has jumped more than nine per cent and is trading above $US30 a barrel on higher short-term demand and as traders cash in short positions.

US crude was up 9.01 per cent, or $US2.66, at $US32.19, at 0756 AEDT, while Brent was up 10.2 per cent, or $US2.93 at $US32.18.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold has fallen as hints of more monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank weighed on the euro and pushed stocks higher, denting appetite for alternative assets.

Benchmark Brent crude futures, which had fuelled risk aversion with a tumble to 12-year lows, closed out a volatile week by soaring nine per cent on Friday as traders cashed in on record short positions.

That fed into stronger appetite for assets viewed as higher risk, such as equities and industrial commodities, and weighed on gold.

“The flight to quality has been set aside,” said Phillip Streible, senior commodities broker for RJO Futures in Chicago.

BASE METALS

Copper has hit a two-week high and posted its biggest weekly gain since early October as oil prices jump and Chinese physical premiums gain ground.

“There’s been some China stimulus (news) … the state grid plans for the next five years, (copper) stocks are not very high, but really the bottom line is oil is guiding everything at the moment,” Macquarie analyst Vivienne Lloyd said.

The State Grid Corporation of China, the country’s biggest single copper user, cut its 2016 investment but overall spending in 2016-2020 will climb by more than a quarter compared with the past five years.

Daily LME stocks data showed a 16,450 tonne decline in “on-warrant” or available copper stocks to 180,925 tonnes, the lowest level since January 2015.

ASX stocks to watch Monday, January 25

BHP – BHP BILLITON

FMG – FORTESCUE METALS GROUP

RIO – RIO TINTO

Australian-listed mining stocks could gain after the price of iron ore lifted 80 US cents to $US41.30.

ORG – ORIGIN ENERGY

OSH – OILSEARCH

STO – SANTOS

WPL – WOODSIDE PETROLEUM

Energy stocks could gain after oil prices lifted more than nine per cent to be back above the $US30 mark.

AAP

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