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Jobless rate tipped to stay steady

Jun 10, 2015
China's reliance on coal has been falling.

China's reliance on coal has been falling.

The unemployment rate is expected to have remained steady in May, with job cuts in the coal and iron ore sectors keeping a lid on jobs growth.

The number of Australians with jobs is forecast to have risen by 10,000 in May, according to an AAP survey of 11 economists, after falling by 2900 in April.

That will keep the unemployment rate steady at 6.2 per cent for the second month in a row, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its jobs figures tomorrow.

JP Morgan economist Stephen Walters expects the unemployment rate to peak at 6.5 per cent later in 2015, as the decline in mining investment gets steeper.

He said plunging commodity prices were forcing mining and resources companies to rein in spending plans.

“Job shedding has been most intense in the iron ore and coal sectors, with further headcount reduction likely,” he said.

Business investment figures released in May showed that the fall in mining investment will be steeper than previously thought and investment outside of mining won’t be enough to make up for the shortfall.

Walters said there had been a rise in the number of people looking for work and this was expected to prevent the unemployment rate from falling.

“As such, the unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range between 6.1 per cent and 6.3 per cent,” he said.

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“We expect this week’s survey to respect these parameters, with the unemployment rate steady at 6.2 per cent.”

Bank of America Merill Lynch Australia chief economist Saul Eslake expects the unemployment rate to grind higher in the coming months because of strong population growth.

“This will not be due to consistent declines in employment growth, rather it is driven by the inability of the economy to absorb what is still relatively solid growth in the labour force,” he said.

The latest ANZ job advertisements survey, a key indicator of the jobs growth, showed the number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers was unchanged in May compared to April.

ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said job ads had been slowing since late 2014.

“It remains below long-term average levels, weighed down by elevated unemployment and a soft labour market,” he said.

“Businesses also remain cautious, with soft growth in consumer demand and spare capacity impacting on confidence, hiring intentions and investment plan.”

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