South Australian Labor is set to finalise its candidates for next year’s state election – and the federal vote shows the candidates will have an enormous fight ahead of them.

Nominations for the remaining seats – which include outgoing veteran Pat Conlon’s seat of Elder – are set to open on Friday.

Once the new Elder candidate, expected to be Annabel Digance, is settled in, she will face a daunting task along with a range of other Labor candidates and incumbents in metropolitan Adelaide.

Swings against Labor in key suburban areas were large last Saturday, including right across the western and southern suburbs – areas that will be crucial to the state election result.

University of Adelaide political scientist Clem Macintyre said the federal vote revealed a difficult trend for state Labor.

“While federal polls have different issues at stake, the overall trend in South Australia appears to make it tougher for Labor,” he said.

“The results in federal seats that cover state electorates that Labor needs to hold show a significant swing to the Liberals.

“On the federal figures Labor has cause for concern in Colton, Mitchell and Elder and looks to have major problems in Hartley, Ashford and Bright.”

In the 47-seat State parliament Labor currently holds 26 seats and can expect the support of Frome independent Geoff Brock.

The Liberals hold 18 seats and would expect the support of Fisher independent Bob Such and Mount Gambier’s Don Pegler.

A redistribution of boundaries in 2012 places the Labor seat of Bright back as a notional Liberal seat.

A swing of just three per cent would see another five seats shift to the Liberal side of the pendulum, enough for Steven Marshall to become the next Premier.

“At this point in time, it’s looking very difficult for Labor to hold on,” Macintyre said.

To start with Elder, where Conlon hasn’t endeared himself to voters by taking up a part-time position with a law firm while still representing them, the federal booths in the centre of the seat swung against Labor.

In 2010, Elder was won by Labor with a margin of 3.7 per cent. The swing to the Liberals in key booths in the seat last Saturday ranged from 3.59 per cent in Park Holme South to a whopping 11.86 per cent in Plympton Park. In the two Marion booths, the swings were just over 7 per cent and 8.47 per cent.

The news is even worse in the beachside electorate of Colton, held by another former minister Paul Caica with a margin of 4 per cent.

The swings here last Saturday – which contributed to Liberal Matt Williams’ victory in Hindmarsh – were huge.

On the latest two-party preferred figures, the Kidman Park and Fulham booths moved more than 11 per cent in the direction of the Liberals; Henley Beach booths recorded 9.75 and 10.54 per cent swings; and the bad news continued in other booths. Nowhere was the swing smaller than Caica’s margin.

Swings in Labor-held Ashford, which stretches from Wayville to Plympton, aren’t as bad, but were still big enough to be worrying (swings away from Labor were in the 5-6 per cent range in Goodwood, and the Clarence Gardens booth moved to the Liberals by 8.93 per cent).

Down in Port Adelaide, Labor member Susan Close – who was given a huge scare by independent Gary Johanson in the byelection where she replaced Kevin Foley – can not afford a shred of complacency.

The swings against Labor were again enormous in key suburbs Close will depend on in March 2014. In Taperoo the swing to the Liberals was a massive 11.96 per cent. In Parafield Gardens, the three booths turned to the Liberals by 7.21 per cent, 9.35 per cent and 9.5 per cent. Anywhere near that result in the state election would see Close in deep trouble.

A similar story is replicated in most corners of metropolitan Adelaide.

Federal booths in the eastern suburbs seat of Hartley, where Grace Portolesi’s future is eyed nervously by Labor campaigners, the swings to the Liberals were solid – mostly percentage numbers with fours, fives and sixes in front of them.

Fellow minister Tom Kenyon, in the norther-eastern suburban seat of Newlands, will also look at the federal figures with concern.

Booths in the federal seat of Makin, held by Labor’s Tony Zappia with a reduced margin after Saturday, swung strongly away from Labor. The Tea Tree Gully booth recorded a 9.73 per cent swing against Labor; St Agnes and Vista booths moved by more than 5 per cent, and the list goes on.

Bright, the beachside electorate held by minister Chloe Fox, is Labor’s most marginal seat and is already being written off by many in the party.

On Saturday, the booths in the federal seat of Boothby which are also in Bright swung heavily towards the Liberals. In Brighton the swing was more than 11 per cent; in Marino 9.27 per cent; in Seacliff 6.32 per cent; and the Hallett Cove booths (in the federal seat of Kingston) moved between 4.52 per cent and 5.22 per cent towards the Liberals.

The few shreds of good news show Labor’s vote in Whyalla, the heart of state seat Giles where Lyn Breuer is retiring, holding up. Booths in Adelaide, generally, weren’t as bad for Labor as other areas, although sitting Liberal member Rachel Sanderson will be difficult to shift – she’s a highly visible local member.

Labor knows the next election is a long shot, and it has recruited marketing guru Neil Lawrence to help prepare its campaign.

Lawrence, who masterminded Kevin ’07 and the mining industry’s slick campaign against the mining tax, will have an enormous task to combat the anti-Labor sentiment which is apparent in these figures.