COVID peak date remains uncertain: Spurrier
The state’s chief public health officer says it’s too early to tell whether South Australia’s COVID-19 cases will peak this week as daily cases and hospitalisations continue to rise.
Chief public health officer Professor Nicola Spurrier. Photo: David Mariuz/AAP
SA Health on Wednesday reported a new record for people in hospital with COVID-19, with hospitalisations jumping from 282 on Tuesday to 323 on Wednesday.
The state also recorded another 4776 cases, up from 4172 reported on Tuesday and 4053 on Monday.
The increase in cases is being driven by the rise in the more contagious and immune-evasive BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants.
Speaking from isolation at home after contracting COVID-19, chief public health officer Nicola Spurrier said it was “very difficult to say” whether the peak has passed or was still coming.
“Our modellers said when they put out their initial model a couple of weeks ago, the most certain we are is that we will have a wave for BA.4 and BA.5,” she told ABC Radio this morning.
“But there’s a lot less certainty around when the peak will be and the height of that peak.
“The reason for that is because we’re having this BA.4 and BA.5 wave at the same time as the rest of the world and the rest of Australia.
“And so we don’t have the benefit as we did previously with our modelling of seeing what had happened elsewhere.”
Spurrier said the modelling had been adjusted for shortened re-infection periods, antiviral treatments, the arrival of fourth vaccine doses, and the “strong messaging” from authorities around masks.
She also said the modelling had factored in health authorities detecting less COVID-19 cases than before.
“If we look at the modelling, it would suggest that we’re going to hit the peak sometime this week,” she said.
“But of course we’ll only know that next week really.
“If you look at hospitalisations, they always occur about a week or two weeks later, and you can see that in the modelling.
“It is hard to estimate it … it is just an approximation.”
The latest modelling predicts South Australia could record “in excess of 400 hospitalisations” for people with COVID-19 over the next few weeks.
The figure includes people hospitalised for COVID-19 and patients who are there with other health problems who incidentally have COVID-19.
South Australia’s COVID-19 death toll now stands at 596, after SA Health was yesterday notified of an additional 22 deaths which occurred between May 3 and July 18 this year.
