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Labor on track for Boothby win, Sturt in play: poll

The ALP’s prospects of winning the critical South Australian seats of Boothby and Sturt at the upcoming federal election are strengthening, according to a new poll.

Apr 06, 2022, updated Apr 06, 2022
Federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese. Photo: AAP/Darren England

Federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese. Photo: AAP/Darren England

With the federal election set to be called within days, left-leaning thinktank the Australia Institute on Tuesday released new polling commissioned from UComms showing Labor holds a 57 per cent to 43 per cent two-party preferred lead in Boothby, South Australia’s most marginal seat.

The poll, which surveyed 801 Boothby residents through “self-completed automated voice polling methodologies”, has Labor candidate Louise Miller-Frost attracting 34.3 per cent of the first preference vote ahead of Liberal Rachel Swift at 31.8 per cent.

The Greens are polling at 11 per cent while high profile independent Jo Dyer is currently at 7.5 per cent.

Labor has not held Boothby since 1949, although the Liberals have no incumbency advantage at this election with sitting MP Nicolle Flint not running for re-election.

Meanwhile, another UComms poll of 809 residents in the blue-ribbon seat of Sturt shows incumbent Liberal MP James Stevens is down 48 per cent to 52 per cent to Labor on two-party preferred.

Labor candidate Sonja Baram is currently polling at 31 per cent of first preference votes compared to Stevens’ 33.2 per cent. The Greens are again polling at 11 per cent while a further 11 per cent remain undecided.

“If the Morrison Government had been hoping for a post-Budget poll bounce to help their chances in these key South Australian seats, they may be disappointed,” Australia Institute SA director Noah Schultz-Byard said.

“Normally South Australia is not considered a battleground state at Federal Elections, due to a lack of marginal lower house seats. However, our research shows that there could be at least two electorates in play this time around.

“The federal election is still more than a month away and, of course, a lot can change in that time. This research does tell us, though, that the Coalition has ground to make up in South Australia.”

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