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Your views: on modelling and reopening

Today, readers comment on COVID cases and deaths scenarios after borders reopen in three weeks.

Nov 02, 2021, updated Nov 02, 2021
(AAP Image/Kelly Barnes)

(AAP Image/Kelly Barnes)

Commenting on the story: Confusion and concern over new SA COVID modelling

Whilst the SA government and business are obviously keen to reduce Covid-19 restrictions, it seems clear from statistical modelling that it would be wise to wait until at least 90% of the adult population has been vaccinated.

Government is in a difficult position, with pressures from business, other states, and the federal government to open up as soon as possible. It is a trade off between public health and the economy, plus freedom to move. But most likely, if there were to be a plebiscite on the issue, the majority of people would opt for less risk in public health. – Michael Schilling

Why is the SA government even considering opening SA’s borders when Victoria still has big case numbers of over 1000 and four deaths Sunday night?

Apart from pressure from the federal government and big business, I just don’t get it. SA has remained remarkably safe so far, why now risk a Christmas lockdown by opening up SA.

The modelling speaks of deaths expected; too bad if you’re one of the expected. – James Baker

Has there been any model, in Australia or elsewhere, that has underpredicted cases, hospitalisations, deaths? The Doherty Institute modelling over-predicted the outcomes in NSW and Vic. Has the SA modelling used the lessons learned from the NSW, Vic modelling?

Ihave never seen any published comparison of the predicted outcome and the actual outcome – standard practice for any modelling effort. – David Price 

The discrepancies in the SA Health predictions and the subsequent modelling are confusing and concerning. It is still not clear how many children will become ill with COVID and whether the Women’s and Children’s Hospital has a plan to cope with an increased demand.

The modelling figures for children under 12 show a requirement of up to 21 hospital beds, and up to five patients in ICU. However,these are minimums: they relate only to scenario one (current restrictions), and give no indication of the impact on the WCH when the more relaxed scenarios two and three are reached. Even at the lowest prediction level, the hospital will struggle to cope.

We need more transparent and honest information on the likely impact of COVID on our children and on the WCH. – Warren Jones

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