The Weatherill Government has shifted the focus of its campaign for the future submarine project, based on the belief that bidders for the multi-billion dollar project have been told to prepare a business plan for eight vessels, rather than the promised 12.

The state is satisfied its two-year campaign to prevent the building work going offshore has seen that option taken off the table, but is now convinced the Commonwealth intends to reduce the scope of the build.

Premier Jay Weatherill flagged a strategic change of direction last night in a speech to around 150 industry delegates ahead of today’s Pacific 2015 international maritime expo.

He told InDaily today “it looks like the momentum seems to be shifting in favour of a local build”, with the SA Government now set on eliminating a hybrid build as an option, and guaranteeing the 12 subs that were promised before the federal election.

“We’re turning our attention now to reinforcing the election commitment, which was a local build of 12 subs,” he said.

“Our concern about … a hybrid build, starting in another country and migrating here, is we may never see that local build… it might be promised, but it may never eventuate.”

But the greater concern is that the Government now understands the three companies in the running for the contract – Japan, Germany and France – have been told to prepare a bid for only eight vessels.

“If the bidders seem to have been asked to bid on eight, it changes quite a lot about the industrial structure,” Weatherill told InDaily.

“If you’ve (only) got eight the workforce shifts from building to sustainment, whereas 12 would require you to have two parallel processes (so) there’s substantial fluctuations in the size of the workforce and we still get some of the issues that we’ve seen with the ‘Valley of Death’.”

He said a local contract for a dozen subs would “provide a much more stable workforce, which will obviously have its own benefits but also remove some of the risks”, and argued the “fundamental cause” of criticism of SA’s shipbuilding capability was “the stop/start nature of the program”.

While there will be a substantial skills gap in SA, the Premier is adamant “we still have some skills that have built up over the decades”.

“It’s not like we’re starting from scratch, we have significant existing capabilities … but, sure, they have to be upgraded and made relevant to this new build.”

Asked if the State Government was risking political capital by continuing its campaign despite the likely victory of averting an entirely overseas build, Weatherill said: “That’s an argument that can be put, there’s no doubt about that.”

“But the better view is that this is the correct decision – there are powerful arguments for this, and why would we not advocate what we think to be the best position for the state and the nation?

“And it happens to be what they promised as well … it’s not like we’re drumming up a hyper-ambitious plan driven by selfish views about what’s good for SA.

“It’s not our commitment we’re holding them to – it’s the commitment they’ve made themselves.”

New Defence Minister Marise Payne. AAP image

NSW Senator Marise Payne was last month appointed Defence Minister, replacing Kevin Andrews after Malcolm Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott as Prime Minister.

Weatherill said the bidding nations would not risk “antagonising the commonwealth” by advocating a particular option, but that “I’m in a position to communicate the information that we’ve gleaned”.