At least 10 seats are well within the range of the Liberal party at the next state election.
With the tide already flowing in Opposition Leader Stephen Marshall’s direction according to polling, the latest developments mean his party will be hungrily eying off a range of electorates they weren’t before.
The party currently holds 11 seats by margins less than 5 per cent – a swing now firmly on the table for the Liberal party.
Interactive Election Margin Map.
Electorate margins are represented by colours. Deep red is safe Labor, deep blue is safe Liberal, with the two colours softening and blending as the seats become increasingly marginal.
This map is interactive and can be scrolled and zoomed like a normal Google map.
The close seats:
Bright – margin 0.1 per cent LIBERAL – Chloe Fox LABOR
Almost certainly the first seat to fall after a redistribution made it a nominal Liberal seat. Fox has had to negotiate the difficult Transport Services portfolio where she has become the face of Adelaide’s transport problems.
Hartley – margin 0.5 per cent LABOR – Grace Portolesi
Labor’s former Minister for Education and close ally of Premier Jay Weatherill also looks likely to lose her seat. Will the education scandal tarnish her personal brand in the seat?
Ashford – margin 1.5 per cent LABOR – Steph Key
Labor insiders concede it will be tough ask for Labor to hold on here.
Elder – margin 1.7 per cent LABOR – Pat Conlon
Conlon is retiring at the election – and is already working part time as a lawyer – making this seat very difficult for Labor to hold. The Liberals have pre-selected Carolyn Habib.
Mitchell – 2.4 per cent LABOR – Alan Sibbons
Newland – 2.7 per cent LABOR – Tom Kenyon
Florey – 3.6 per cent LABOR – Frances Bedford
Colton – 3.9 per cent LABOR – Paul Caica
Caica was one of the few members of the Left in Cabinet till he was forced to stand down in a cabinet reshuffle last year.
Light – 4.2 per cent LABOR – Tony Piccolo
Piccolo meanwhile was one of the winners in that reshuffle, elevated to the Communities and Social Inclusion portfolio where he has worked closely with troubled government developer Renewal SA.
Lee – margin 7.3 per cent LABOR – Michael Wright
Despite a thick margin the retirement of Michael Wright and the decision from Port Adelaide Mayor Gary Johanson to run has made this a seat to watch. Johanson, an independent, is up against Labor’s Stephen Mullighan and the Liberals’ Liz Davies. Political experts say he’s a long shot, but not without a chance.
