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Danger for Brownlow, Port to fall short, Adelaide to fall: AFL captains

Port won’t make the Grand Final, Adelaide will be lucky to make the play-offs and Geelong’s a shoo-in for the major round on the back of Patrick Dangerfield – who will win this year’s Brownlow medal.

Mar 17, 2016, updated Mar 17, 2016
Some wise footy heads say Paddy will be smiling come season's end - but his former teammates won't. Photo: Julian Smith, AAP.

Some wise footy heads say Paddy will be smiling come season's end - but his former teammates won't. Photo: Julian Smith, AAP.

That’s according to the AFL’s 18 team captains, on hand today for the competition’s season launch in Melbourne.

In its annual confidential poll of club skippers, there was a consensus around the Adelaide evacuee’s favouritism for the league’s highest individual honour, a year after winning his first – and last – gold jacket as the Crows’ club champion.

He was the choice of four captains to win the Brownlow, ahead of Gary Ablett, Dan Hannebery and reigning medalist Nat Fyfe, who each drew three votes apiece.

All 18 team captains were asked a series of questions, including to nominate which clubs – apart from their own – would contest the finals and the Grand Final.

Despite concerted pre-season hype around a likely return to the upper echelons of the ladder, not a single captain picked the Power as a grand finalist.

And in ominous news for the Crows, only four respondents had them penciled in to make the eight.

By contrast, Dangerfield’s return to Geelong is set to propel the Cats back into September action – with every captain nominating the Cats as major round players, despite their ageing squad missing out on the finals last year.

Surprisingly, Geelong and Fremantle were the only teams besides last year’s grand finalists Hawthorn and West Coast considered top eight certainties by all respondents.

A total of 12 different clubs were nominated as chances to contest the finals, but only six were considered set for a grand final berth – Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle, Geelong, Richmond and Sydney.

Crows captain Taylor Walker (two votes) and new Power spearhead Charlie Dixon (one) were tipped as Coleman medal fancies, albeit well behind last year’s winner, Eagle Josh Kennedy (seven votes).

All the captains are attending this morning’s season launch in Melbourne, except Brisbane’s Tom Rockliff, who is recovering from a hamstring problem.

ALL THE VOTES:

Which seven other clubs do you think can make this year’s top eight? (18 times seven selections.)

Fremantle (17), Geelong Cats (17), Hawthorn (17), West Coast (17), Sydney Swans (14), Port Adelaide (12), Richmond (7), North Melbourne (6), GWS Giants (6), Western Bulldogs (6), Adelaide Crows (4), Collingwood (3)

 

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Which other club is most likely to reach the Grand Final? (11 Captains picked eventual premier Hawthorn in 2015)

Hawthorn (7), West Coast (5), Fremantle (3), Geelong Cats (1), Richmond (1), Sydney Swans (1).

 

Who do you think will win the 2016 Brownlow Medal? (Four captains correctly nominated Nat Fyfe in 2015).

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats, four votes), Gary Ablett (Gold Coast Suns, three votes), Nat Fyfe (Fremantle, three votes), Dan Hannebery (Sydney Swans, three votes), Josh Kennedy (Sydney Swans, one vote), Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs, one vote), Dustin Martin (Richmond, one vote), Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood, one vote), Luke Shuey (West Coast, one vote).

 

Who do you think will win the 2016 Coleman Medal? (One captain correctly nominated Josh Kennedy in 2015).

Josh Kennedy (West Coast, seven votes), Lance Franklin (Sydney Swans, four votes), Tom Hawkins (Geelong Cats, two votes), Taylor Walker (Adelaide Crows, two votes), Jeremy Cameron (GWS Giants, one vote), Charlie Dixon (Port Adelaide, one vote), Jack Riewoldt (Richmond, one vote).

 

Who do you think will win the 2016 NAB AFL Rising Star? (No captain correctly nominated Jesse Hogan in 2015).

Callum Mills (Sydney Swans, seven votes), Clayton Oliver (Melbourne, three votes), Darcy Moore (Collingwood, two votes), Jacob Weitering (Carlton, two votes), Callum Ah Chee (Gold Coast Suns, one vote), Wayne Milera (Adelaide Crows, one vote), Christian Petracca (Melbourne, one vote), Josh Schache (Brisbane Lions, one vote).

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