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AFL finals form guide: teams and tips

Sep 11, 2015
The Crows have recalled outside runner David Mackay (left) for its Elimination Final.

The Crows have recalled outside runner David Mackay (left) for its Elimination Final.

Hawthorn have kept the AFL finals hopes of injured Isaac Smith alive while Richmond have taken the biggest selection punt by summoning Reece Conca.

Conca has played only two games this season – the most recent four weeks ago – but has been named for the Tigers’ elimination final against North Melbourne, who made 10 changes to their side for Sunday’s match.

“It’s a calculated risk,” Tigers coach Damien Hardwick said.

Fremantle dynamo Nat Fyfe is among 14 inclusions for the Dockers, who host Sydney in a Saturday afternoon qualifying final in Perth.

Goalsneak Hayden Ballantyne has been named for his first match since round 14 while numerous established Fremantle stars including captain Matthew Pavlich are back after being rested last week.

Sydney, having lost Lance Franklin (mental illness) and Kieren Jack (knee), have called on experienced duo Jarrad McVeigh, returning from a calf strain, and Ben McGlynn as replacements.

Hawthorn have named Smith, despite damaging knee ligaments last weekend, along with captain Luke Hodge and Luke Breust, while dropping Angus Litherland, James Sicily and Daniel Howe.

Smith didn’t train on Thursday with his Hawthorn teammates in Perth.

“We’ll make a call on that tomorrow morning,” assistant coach Adem Yze said of Smith.

West Coast have summoned influential defender Will Schofield to return from a three-match absence because of a hamstring injury and also recalled Scott Selwood.

The duo replace Chris Masten (hamstring) and Jackson Nelson (omitted).

Meanwhile, the Western Bulldogs have made five changes for Saturday night’s elimination final against Adelaide at the MCG.

Ruckman Jordan Roughead (finger injury) and Jason Johannisen (calf complaint) are out, while Lukas Webb, Zaine Cordy and Brett Goodes are omitted.

The Dogs have named ruckman Will Minson for his first AFL game since round 15, recalled evergreen trio Rob Murphy, Matthew Boyd and Dale Morris, and also included Lin Jong.

The Crows have dropped first-year backman Jake Lever and Jarryd Lyons in favour of defender Kyle Cheney and speedy David Mackay.

FRIDAY, Sept 11

Qualifying final

West Coast v Hawthorn at Domain Stadium 8.20pm

Head to head: Eagles 24 Hawks 20

Head to head in finals: Eagles 1 Hawthorn 2

Last clash: Round 19 2015 – Hawks 13.10 (88) bt Eagles 11.8 (74) at Domain Stadium

Last finals clash: 1992 elimination final, Eagles 14.16 (100) bt Hawks 12.15 (87) at Subiaco Oval

Tab Sportsbet: Eagles $2.10 Hawks $1.75

William Hill: Eagles $2.10 Hawks $1.75

They’re the league’s best attacking sides, with Hawthorn the highest-scorers in the regular season and the Eagles second-highest. Both teams possess daunting forward lines, midfields laden with talent, and stingy defences – the Hawks conceded the fewest scores this season, West Coast ranked fourth. Much will depend on the vital duels in the middle: can Hawthorn quell the influence of Eagle ruckman Nic Naitanui? Will West Coast’s emerging onballers find Hawthorn’s seasoned pros too tough to crack? The Hawks, aiming for three straight flags and on a five-game winning streak against the Eagles, have been bolstered by the return of captain Luke Hodge from a two-game suspension while West Coast recalled key backman Will Schofield from injury.

Key: Eagles spearhead Josh Kennedy has claimed the Coleman medal for the highest goal-scorer but can he break the shackles applied by Brian Lake or Josh Gibson?

Tip: Hawks by 15 points

SATURDAY, Sept 12

Qualifying final

Fremantle v Sydney at Domain Stadium 3.20pm

Head to head: Dockers 13 Swans 16 drawn 1

Head to head in finals: Dockers 1 Sydney 2

Last clash: Round 4 2015 – Dockers 11.8 (74) bt Swans 8.12 (60) at Domain Stadium

Last finals clash: 2014 qualifying final, Swans 13.15 (93) bt Dockers 10.9 (69) at Stadium Australia

Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.35 Swans $3.25

William Hill: Dockers $1.36 Swans $3.20

While the Hawks and Eagles emphasise attack, the Dockers and Swans value defence above all. Fremantle’s defence ranks second and Sydney’s fourth, with just 14 points separating them in the regular season. The minor premiers Dockers enter the final cherry-ripe, despite having lost three of their past four games as coach Ross Lyon turned his eye to the finals. Freo have made a whopping 14 changes with Brownlow medal favourite Nat Fyfe and Hayden Ballantyne among the inclusions. Sydney lost co-captain Kieren Jack to a knee injury and gun forward Lance Franklin (mental illness). Franklin’s exclusion may prove decisive for a Swans team which struggle to boot massive scores.

Key: With Franklin out, Kurt Tippett becomes the focal point of Sydney’s attack. Will he thrive under the added responsibility or find the added attention too much?

Tip: Dockers by 19 points

Elimination final

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide at MCG 7.20pm

Head to head: Bulldogs 22 Crows 18

Head to head in finals: Bulldogs 0 Crows 2

Last clash: Round 4 2015 – Bulldogs 18.17 (125) bt Crows 10.8 (68) at Etihad Stadium

Last finals clash: 1998 preliminary final, Crows 24.17 (161) bt Bulldogs 13.15 (93) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Bulldogs $1.90 Crows $1.90

William Hill: Bulldogs $1.84 Crows $2.00

Both clubs return to the finals for the first time since 2012, with young squads capable of eye-catching offensive feats. But just how the relatively inexperienced teams handle the finals heat will determine the result. The Dogs and Crows have had eerily similar seasons: Adelaide scored six more points and conceded four fewer points than the Bulldogs in the regular season; the Dogs won 14 games and Adelaide (who had one match abandoned after coach Phil Walsh’s death) won 13. The Dogs have been hit by the withdrawal of ruckman Jordan Roughead because of a finger injury, summoning Will Minson for his first AFL game in two months.

Key: Adelaide ruck Sam Jacobs now looms even larger. In superb touch, Jacobs should win the majority of hit outs but can the Crows midfield turn that advantage into a match-defining one?

Tip: Crows by 10 points

SUNDAY, Sept 13

Elimination final

Richmond v North Melbourne at MCG 3.20pm

Head to head: Tigers 83 Kangaroos 70 drawn 2

Head to head in finals: Tigers 2 Kangaroos 3

Last clash: Round 23 2015 – Tigers 16.12 (108) bt Kangaroos 10.7 (67) at Etihad Stadium

Last clash in finals: 1995 qualifying final, Kangaroos 17.12 (114) bt Tigers 12.12 (84) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Tigers $1.65 Kangaroos $2.25

William Hill: Tigers $1.60 Kangaroos $2.35

Dismiss as irrelevant last week’s meeting of the two clubs, when Richmond downed an under-strength North. The Kangas have summoned 10 players, nine who were rested last start, which makes them a different proposition for the Tigers, who have found the Roos a bogey side in recent seasons – they hadn’t beaten them in five games before last weekend. Richmond are the lowest-scoring of all the finalists but are ranking third defensively, so don’t expect a Sunday shootout. The Tigers surprisingly named Reece Conca, who has played just two games this season, in their 25-man squad while the Roos made 10 changes to their side from last week.

Key: Dustin Martin is the ace in Richmond’s pack. Enjoying another stellar season of consistent ball-winning, he’s also an attacking threat who must be curtailed for the Roos to prevail.

Tip: Tigers by 21 points

– AAP

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