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AFL form guide: Some stars back, Cotchin out

Aug 28, 2015
Daniel Menzel in action for Geelong in 2011. He returns tonight after four years and four knee reconstructions.

Daniel Menzel in action for Geelong in 2011. He returns tonight after four years and four knee reconstructions.

Lance Franklin, Matthew Pavlich and Jeremy McGovern are key inclusions this weekend but Richmond captain Trent Cotchin is a surprise omission from side to face Essendon.

Cotchin will sit out the must-win match against the Bombers with a back complaint as the Tigers look to keep driving their top-four campaign.

The inspirational skipper will be missing for the first time in two and a half seasons.

With their season on the line, Geelong have recalled Daniel Menzel after an incredible four years out with successive knee injuries.

When Menzel, 23, last played the Cats were two matches from hoisting a premiership cup in 2011, while against Collingwood they must win to keep their finals hopes alive. If they lose, Adelaide is assured of a top eight finish.

Menzel told the club’s website he was “feeling every emotion possible”.

“I still am extremely excited but I guess the nerves and everything else will kick in pretty soon too,” he said.

With his AFL future undecided, James Kelly also comes into the Cats side for George Horlin-Smith (omitted) and Josh Caddy (knee).

Collingwood have swapped defenders, with Nathan Brown and Matt Scharenberg included at Jack Frost and Alan Toovey’s expense.

Both North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs have made changes in their potential elimination final preview.

The Dogs have decided Zaine Cordy will make his debut and have recalled Matt Boyd, Jordan Roughead and Liam Picken among six changes.

Assistant coach Brent Montgomery said Cordy, brother to team-mate Ayce, was a “fierce competitor”.

“(With) pretty strong bloodlines with the family, he knows what its all about, he’s hit the ground running since hes been here,” he told the club’s website.

North Melbourne coach Brad Scott has kept Daniel Wells back from a senior return for another week, swapping Jack Ziebell and Taylor Garner for Luke McDonald (sore) and Lindsay Thomas (foot).

In the wake of Luke Hodge’s suspension, Hawthorn have resisted the temptation to rest senior players for their trip to Tasmania to face lowly Brisbane.

Will Langford will play his first match in eight rounds, with David Hale and James Silicy joining him in the 22 at the expense of Ryan Schoenmakers (dropped) and Paul Puopolo (ankle).

A pair of wantaway stars are included for Saturday’s remaining matches, with Chris Yarran recalled amid Carlton’s injury crisis and Charlie Dixon overcoming his ankle woes for Gold Coast. Port Adelaide vice-captain Matthew Lobbe has been recalled to top level action, along with Karl Amon and Aaron Young. Kane Mitchell has been dropped to the SANFL, while Jake Neade is out for personal reasons and Jay Schulz has a back problem.

The table-topping West Australian sides play on Sunday and both have some big inclusions in their extended squads.

Fremantle look set to offset Nat Fyfe by returning Pavlich to face Melbourne, while McGovern has been named by the Eagles to travel to Adelaide.

Adelaide has named an extended squad but young defender Jake Lever will return at the expense of Sam Shaw.

For Sydney, Franklin could return alongside Tom Mitchell and Gary Rohan against St Kilda.

Swans coach John Longmire said he would give the trio “every chance to prove their fitness”.

They did various things and all what was required of them. The good news is its all looking positive for all three of them at the moment,” he told the club’s website.

FRIDAY, Aug 28

Geelong v Collingwood at the MCG 7.50pm

Head to Head: Cats 97 Magpies 129 Drawn 1

Last clash: Round 6 2015 – Cats 15.10 (100) bt Magpies 8.11 (59) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Cats $1.38 Magpies $3.05

William Hill: Cats $1.37 Magpies $3.15

It’s now or never for the Cats, whose draw with St Kilda last week has left them on the brink. Geelong need to win their remaining two games and rely on other results to fall their way if they are to make the finals for a ninth straight year. Collingwood appear to have already put up the white flag. After starting the year with eight wins from 11 games, the Magpies have won just one game since – against lowly Carlton. Last week’s 91-point loss to Richmond showcased just how far Collingwood have sunk. A feel-good part of this game is the return of Cats forward Daniel Menzel, who has endured four knee reconstructions since his last AFL match.

Key: Stopping Stevie J. The veteran Cat remains integral to his team’s fortunes. If Collingwood can shut him down, it will rob Geelong of their X-factor.

Tip: Cats by 27

SATURDAY, Aug 29

GWS v Carlton at Spotless Stadium 1.45pm

Head to Head: Giants 2 Blues 2 Drawn 0

Last clash: Round 7 2015 – Giants 19.21 (135) bt Blues 9.3 (57) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Giants $1.20 Blues $4.60

William Hill: Giants $1.20 Blues $4.50

Carlton have a new coach – well, kind of. Although John Barker will remain interim mentor for the final two rounds, Hawks assistant Brendon Bolton was this week unveiled as the new head coach from next year. The Blues got off the foot of the ladder with last week’s win over Melbourne and have a chance to double up against a GWS outfit that has run out of puff. GWS have lost four of their past five games to crash out of finals contention, with their 89-point home loss to the Swans highlighting their frailties.

Key: The Giants have made six changes to their side this week. Will the mass turnover help or hinder their cause?

Tip: Giants by 35

Hawthorn v Brisbane at Aurora Stadium 2.10pm

Head to Head: Hawks 14 Lions 13 Drawn 0

Last clash: Round 1 2014 – Hawks 21.13 (139) bt Lions 13.13 (91) at York Park

Tab Sportsbet: Hawks $1.01 Lions $17

William Hill: Hawks $1.01 Lions $17

The Hawks blew their chance of landing a top-two berth following their shock loss to Port last week. The defeat has made their path to the flag a whole lot trickier – and it could come back to bite them in a big way. Luke Hodge’s suspension robs Hawthorn of one of their most important players but it won’t matter this week against a struggling Lions outfit that has been ravaged by injuries. Brisbane haven’t beaten Hawthorn since 2009 and it’s unlikely that stat will change any time soon despite this week’s return of Daniel Rich.

Key: Motivation. With a top-two berth now out of the question, the Hawks have very little to play for before the finals. Can they be bothered putting in a 100 per cent effort against the Lions?

Tip: Hawks by 56

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium 4.35pm

Head to Head: Kangaroos 76 Bulldogs 75 Drawn 3

Last clash: Round 21 2014 – Kangaroos 17.9 (111) bt Bulldogs 8.13 (61) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Kangaroos $1.68 Bulldogs $2.20

William Hill: Kangaroos $1.62 Bulldogs $2.30

The Bulldogs were given a major reality check in last week’s 77-point loss to West Coast. In contrast, North Melbourne proved they could cause some damage during the finals after beating the Dockers. The return of Jack Ziebell from suspension is a major boost for the Roos. And with both sides willing to run and spread, expect an open game featuring sizzling speed. The Bulldogs have lost four straight against the Kangaroos and most have been by big margins.

Key: Jake Stringer. The Bulldogs forward has been a revelation this year. If he gets enough supply, he has the potential to kick a match-winning bag.

Kangaroos by 22

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Essendon v Richmond at MCG 7.20pm

Head to Head: Bombers 104 Tigers 88 Drawn 4

Last clash: Round 9 2015 – Tigers 10.12 (72) bt Bombers 8.11 (59) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Bombers $7 Tigers $1.10

William Hill: Bombers $7 Tigers $1.10

Richmond are shaping as a smoky for the flag and a big win here would be a boost to their hopes of sneaking into the top four. Boasting an explosive midfield and a talented forward line spearheaded by Jack Riewoldt, the Tigers have the potential to kick some big scores. Collingwood and Gold Coast found that out the hard way over the past fortnight and Essendon’s injury-hit outfit could be in for some pain this week. Last week’s exit of Bombers coach James Hird seemed to free up Essendon players but their efforts still weren’t good enough to get up against the struggling Suns.

Key: Hold the spread. Richmond’s gun midfielders have the potential to cut up their opponents. If Essendon can hold firm at the stoppages, they stand a chance of victory.

Tip: Tigers by 49

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide Metricon Stadium 7.20pm

Head to Head: Suns 1 Power 4 Drawn 0

Last clash: Round 21 2014 – Power 7.14 (56) bt Suns 7.5 (47) at Metricon Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Suns $3.35 Power $1.33

William Hill: Suns $3.50 Power $1.30

This one’s a match-up of the two biggest underachievers of 2015. Port Adelaide should have been challenging for this year’s flag, while Gold Coast were being talked up as a top-four roughie. Instead, the Suns are third from bottom, while the Power won’t even make the finals. Port Adelaide’s win over Hawthorn last week must have frustrated their fans – how can they beat the premiership favourites but lose to Brisbane and Carlton? The Suns have shown some decent fight in recent weeks but it will be hard to beat a Power outfit that has finally started to rediscover its flair.

Key: Will the loss of spearhead Jay Schulz cause too much disruption to Port’s forward line? On the other hand, the extra space may allow Chad Wingard to cause even more damage.

Tip: Power by 37

SUNDAY, Aug 30

Adelaide v West Coast at Adelaide Oval 1.10pm

Head to Head: Crows 18 Eagles 23 Drawn 0

Last clash: Round 15 2015 – Eagles 22.15 (147) bt Crows 14.7 (91) at Domain Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Crows $2.40 Eagles $1.58

William Hill: Crows $2.20 Eagles $1.68

The Eagles are fast shaping as the Cinderella story of 2015 following their barnstorming campaign. Last week they played without a single key defender – and still managed to smash the Bulldogs by 77 points. Adelaide have been in sizzling touch over the past three weeks, beating Richmond, Essendon and Brisbane by an average of 78 points. But it will be tough going against a bona fide premiership contender. The Crows will be a strong chance of snaring a home final if they win this one, so expect them to come out all guns blazing.

Key: Eagles ruckman Nic Naitanui has been a colossus this season. If the Crows can’t stop him, West Coast will probably win.

Tip: Eagles by 4

St Kilda v Sydney at Etihad Stadium 3.20pm

Head to Head: Saints 77 Swans 131 Drawn 3

Last clash: Round 21 2014 – Swans 19.13 (127) bt Saints 8.8 (56) at the SCG

Tab Sportsbet: Saints $4.60 Swans $1.20

William Hill: Saints $4.50 Swans $1.20

For Sydney the equation is simple – win the next two games to lock up a top-four berth. And on paper, they should encounter few problems against St Kilda. But the Saints showed plenty of mettle in last week’s draw with Geelong and will be no pushovers if they can put up a similar effort. Sydney have named Lance Franklin in their extended squad but the star forward’s dodgy back remains a concern.

Key: Spreading the load. Sydney had 10 goalkickers in last week’s demolition of GWS. If they get another spread like that, St Kilda won’t be able to stop them.

Tip: Swans by 47

Fremantle v Melbourne at Domain Stadium 4.40pm

Head to Head: Fremantle 20 Melbourne 13 Drawn 0

Last clash: Round 5 2015 – Dockers 18.10 (118) bt Demons 6.14 (50) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.10 Demons $7

William Hill: Dockers $1.08 Demons $7.50

Are the wheels falling off Fremantle’s premiership bid? Back-to-back losses and an untimely leg injury to Nat Fyfe have left the Dockers looking mighty vulnerable heading into the finals. Nevertheless, they should find the going breezy against a Demons outfit that has struggled to fire in recent weeks. Melbourne haven’t scored more than 50 points in their past five matches against Fremantle and look set for another tough outing on the long expanses of Domain Stadium.

Key: Hoodoos. The Demons have lost their past 15 matches in Perth. Surely that will play on their minds when they step out on enemy territory this Sunday.

Tip: Dockers by 51

with AAP

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