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AFL tipsters’ guide: Robbie Gray out for Port

Apr 24, 2015
Ruckman Matthew Lobbe (right) comes into Port's Round 5 team - working with Paddy Ryder (left) for the first time.

Ruckman Matthew Lobbe (right) comes into Port's Round 5 team - working with Paddy Ryder (left) for the first time.

Port Adelaide have been boosted by the return of first-choice ruckman Matthew Lobbe for their Anzac Day AFL clash with Hawthorn.

Lobbe, 26, missed the first three matches of the season with a quad strain and will partner heralded recruit Paddy Ryder in the ruck for the first time.

However, star midfielder Robbie Gray is a late withdrawal from the team with a calf injury.

Veteran onballer Kane Cornes earned a recall for Saturday night’s highly anticipated clash at Adelaide Oval after he was rested for last week’s thrilling win against North Melbourne. Andrew Moore, tipped as a replacement for injured Ollie Wines, couldn’t be considered after the SANFL appeals panel upheld his three-match ban for making intentional contact with an umpire.

The Hawks made one change to the side who thumped the Western Bulldogs with Bradley Hill, who suffered a concussion in round two, replacing Jed Anderson.

Despite copping a knock to a shoulder last week, Cyril Rioli has been named for the rematch of last year’s preliminary final thriller, won by Hawthorn by just three points.

Meanwhile, Taylor Adams has recovered from a foot injury and returns for Collingwood’s blockbuster Anzac Day clash with Essendon at the MCG, with the Bombers bringing in Courtenay Dempsey and Will Hams.

David Zaharakis has been named, but remains in doubt with a knee problem.

Fremantle host Sydney in a mouth-watering match-up on Saturday night, with the Dockers including Tendai Mzungu and the Swans adding Nick Smith at the expense of Dean Towers.

First-round draft pick Blaine Boekhorst will make his AFL debut as Carlton look to cover the loss of Chris Judd to a back complaint. St Kilda have also been significantly weakened for the New Zealand clash with Maverick Weller (calf) joining Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna on the sidelines.

Richmond have been dealt a triple blow with Troy Chaplin (calf), Chris Newman (back) and Chris Knights (hamstring) all unavailable for the Friday night clash with Melbourne at the MCG. Upgraded rookie Matt Arnot gets his chance to impress, with Nathan Drummond – who makes his AFL debut – and Matt McDonough also coming into the side who thumped Brisbane last week.

Former Dockers’ midfielder Viv Michie replaces Sam Frost (toe) in a Demons side looking for their second win of the season.

Gold Coast coach Rodney Eade has swung the axe with talls Sam Day and Daniel Gorringe dropped for the Suns’ encounter with GWS in Canberra. Charlie Dixon and Alex Sexton have been included as Eade looks for his first win at the helm.

North Melbourne’s Jack Ziebell (bruised lung) and Brisbane skipper Tom Rockliff (ribs) have been included in extended squads for Sunday matches, but Ziebell will need to pass a late fitness test to play.

Geelong have named Mathew Stokes (achilles)and Tom Hawkins (family bereavement), but the club remains unsure if either will play against the Kangaroos.

The Western Bulldogs have been bolstered by the returns of Marcus Bontempelli, Matthew Boyd and Easton Wood ahead of Sunday’s match against Adelaide.

The Crows will name its 22 tonight, with Matt Crouch, Mitch Grigg and Jarryd Lyons coming into the squad.

FRIDAY, April 24

Richmond v Melbourne at MCG 7.50pm

Head to Head: Tigers 103 Demons 80 drawn 2

Last clash: Round 9 2014 – Demons 14.7 (91) bt Tigers 9.20 (74) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Tigers $1.25 Demons $4.00

William Hill: Tigers $1.28 Demons $3.70

It’s a rare outing on the big Friday night stage for Melbourne, who have hardly been considered acceptable prime-time viewing in recent years. Having done a number on Paddy Dangerfield last week, all eyes will be on Demons hard nut Bernie Vince who will almost certainly go to Trent Cotchin at the opening bounce. The Tigers have been getting excellent rebound from the defensive 50 from Bachar Houli and Alex Rance.

Key: Richmond spearhead Jack Riewoldt has traditionally struggled to get the better of James Frawley in recent years. But with Frawley now a Hawk, Paul Roos will need to hope fast-improving Tom McDonald is up to the task.

Tip: Tigers by 35 points

SATURDAY, April 25

St Kilda v Carlton at Westpac Regional Stadium 11.10am

Head to Head: Saints 51 Blues 161 drawn 2

Last clash: Round 16 2014 – Blues 24.7 (151) bt Saints 10.6 (66) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Saints $3.35 Blues $1.33

William Hill: Saints $3.10 Blues $1.37

The jury is still very much out on the AFL’s New Zealand experiment. The previous two games in Wellington have been mostly scrappy affairs. One positive this time around is that it is an afternoon kick-off, when dew won’t be a problem. The Saints will be without several key players including skipper Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna and Maverick Weller, while the Blues will have to replace Chris Judd (hamstring) and the suspended Chris Yarran. Carlton coach Mick Malthouse equals Jock McHale’s record of games coached. But what he really needs is a win.

Key: Carlton skipper Marc Murphy has copped much of the criticism for a perceived lack of leadership in his team’s dreadful start to 2015. There would be no better time for him to stand up.

Tip: Blues by 10 points

Essendon v Collingwood at MCG 2.40pm

Head to Head: Bombers 100 Magpies 126 drawn 4

Last clash: Round 17 2014 – Bombers 16.7 (103) bt Magpies 5.9 (39) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Bombers $1.42 Magpies $2.90

William Hill: Bombers $1.42 Magpies $2.90

With Anzac Day falling on a Saturday this year, this match shares the billing with four other clashes. But the Bombers v the Magpies at the ‘G is still very much first among equals. Jobe Watson and Dyson Heppell have been providing great midfield drive for the Bombers, although they will miss former Bulldog Adam Cooney (hamstring). Collingwood showed plenty of good signs last week against St Kilda.

Key: Essendon backline pillars Cale Hooker and Michael Hurley have both had more than their fair share of knockers over the journey. But right now, they are being spoken of as the best key defensive pairing in the league.

Tip: Magpies by 8 points

Greater Western Sydney v Gold Coast at Manuka Oval 5.40pm

Head to Head: Giants 1 Suns 4 drawn 0

Last clash: Round 6 2014 – Suns 20.14 (134) bt Giants 13.16 (94) at Metricon Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Giants $1.45 Suns $2.75

William Hill: Giants $1.48 Suns $2.65

The growing feeling that the Giants may have gone past the Suns is shown in the betting markets for this clash in Canberra, with plenty of love for GWS. Shane Mumford and Callan Ward provide the leadership and plenty of the young guns are following their example. Gold Coast simply must show they can find a way to win without Gary Ablett. Michael Rischitelli and Harley Bennell went some way to picking up the slack last week against the Cats.

Key: Which team’s best young key forwards will stand up? The Suns had few better players last week than Tom Lynch – so maybe it will be him.

Tip: Suns by 12 points

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval 7.40pm

Head to Head: Power 16 Hawks 13 drawn 0

Last clash: Finals Week 3 2014 – Hawks 15.7 (97) bt Power 13.16 (94) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Power $2.35 Hawks $1.60

William Hill: Power $2.25 Hawks $1.65

The Power have had a brutally tough start to the season and it doesn’t get any easier in a hurry, with this clash against the reigning premiers followed by the Showdown against Adelaide. The Power are still playing some pretty good footy, but they do need a win here badly to avoid slipping off the pace. The return of Matthew Lobbe is a huge boost for Port as they look to come out on top in the rematch of last year’s thrilling preliminary final against the Hawks. On the other hand, Robbie Gray’s late withdrawal is a significant blow, coming on top of the loss of Ollie Wines.

Key: Two spectacular high marks last week against the Bulldogs were pretty good signs that Cyril Rioli is back in a big way.

Tip: Hawks by 20 points

Fremantle v Sydney at Domain Stadium 8.40pm

Head to Head: Dockers 12 Swans 16 drawn 1

Last clash: Finals Week 1 2014 – Swans 13.15 (93) bt Dockers 10.9 (69) at ANZ Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.65 Swans $2.25

William Hill: Dockers $1.65 Swans $2.25

Another potential early-season epic between two genuine premiership contenders. The Dockers strangled the life out of the Eagles in round three but, against Sydney, face one of the few teams who can just about match them for manic pressure. And in early Rising Star favourite Isaac Heeney, they have a young man who has slotted in seamlessly – providing grunt and goals in equal measures.

Key: Just how good a player Michael Walters has become was made crystal clear when he missed most of last season with an ankle injury. Now that he’s back, the Freo forward set-up looks much more potent.

Tip: Swans by 15 points

SUNDAY, April 26

Brisbane v West Coast at Gabba 1.10pm

Head to Head: Lions 10 Eagles 17 drawn 0

Last clash: Round 17 2014 – Eagles 11.10 (76) bt Lions 9.10 (64) at Gabba

Tab Sportsbet: Lions $3.00 Eagles $1.40

William Hill: Lions $2.95 Eagles $1.40

Both teams are coming off bad losses – with the Lions humbled on their home deck by Richmond and the Eagles again ceding WA bragging rights to the Dockers. Dayne Beams has been a good contributor in his first three games for Brisbane, but they need more from fellow big-name recruit Allen Christensen. West Coast’s key defensive woes have become even acute with a knee injury to Jeremy McGovern.

Key: In Josh Kennedy, the Eagles have far and away the best key forward on show. And with Daniel Merrett still on the injured list, Brisbane don’t have an obvious match-up for the Coleman Medal pacesetter.

Tip: Eagles by 30 points

Geelong v North Melbourne at Simonds Stadium 3.20pm

Head to Head: Cats 95 Kangaroos 61 drawn 1

Last clash: Finals Week 2 2014 – Kangaroos 14.14 (98) bt Cats 13.14 (92) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Cats $2.25 Kangaroos $1.65

William Hill: Cats $2.25 Kangaroos $1.65

Not since 2006 against West Coast has Geelong been at such long odds to win a match at Simonds Stadium. But with experienced hands Jimmy Bartel and Tom Lonergan going down with injury last week, it’s not hard to see why. Just days after suffering a bruised lung, Jack Ziebell was included in the Roos’ extended squad, but he’ll need to pass a late fitness test to play. Daniel Wells (achilles) won’t make the trip down the highway.

Key: Joel Selwood. If the Kangaroos can find a way to limit the output of Geelong’s Captain Fantastic – which is admittedly much easier said than done – they will go a long way to winning the match.

Tip: Kangaroos by 18 points

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide at Etihad Stadium 4.40pm

Head to Head: Bulldogs 21 Crows 18 drawn 0

Last clash: Round 6 2014 – Crows 13.14 (92) bt Bulldogs 12.11 (83) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Bulldogs $4.00 Crows $1.25

William Hill: Bulldogs $3.50 Crows $1.30

After a bright start under Luke Beveridge, the Bulldogs copped a major reality check against Hawthorn. How they respond will say a lot about the team. Injuries to Dale Morris and Mitch Wallis hurt, but the Dogs will be buoyed by the returns of Marcus Bontempelli, Easton Wood and Matthew Boyd. Adelaide superstar Patrick Dangerfield will be keen to bounce back after a torrid encounter with Melbourne tagger Bernie Vince.

Key: With Morris out, Jordan Roughead shapes as option one and two to take on Taylor Walker. The Bulldogs can’t afford to let Big Tex have a day out.

Tip: Crows by 35 points

– AAP

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