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Pauline Hanson given even chance of Canberra return

Almost 18 years after she was ousted from parliament, Pauline Hanson could be on her way back to Canberra.

May 24, 2016, updated May 24, 2016
Pauline Hanson is rated an even chance to return to Federal Parliament. Photo: AAP/Lukas Coch

Pauline Hanson is rated an even chance to return to Federal Parliament. Photo: AAP/Lukas Coch

Political strategists say the One Nation founder has her best shot of winning a Senate spot in almost two decades courtesy of the Turnbull government’s voting reforms and the double-dissolution election.

A senior Labor strategist said Hanson could snatch Queensland’s 12th senate spot with as little as four per cent of the vote.

He said the first 10 Senate spots would very likely be taken by the LNP, Labor and the Greens, but the final two spots were wide open.

“This new system means that the last two spots are really unpredictable,” he said.

“I think there’s a big opportunity for her.”

Griffith University political lecturer Paul Williams says the far right politician has about an even chance of snatching the 12th Senate spot, with only independent senator Glenn Lazarus and Nick Xenophon Team’s Suzanne Grant potentially standing in her way.

“I’m tipping her chances of getting that 12th spot at close to 50-50, she’s as good a chance as any of the other frontrunners to take that spot, like Glenn Lazarus or a Xenophon candidate,” he said.

But Williams said Hanson would probably only be able to score the spot on her primary vote and wouldn’t be able to count on a strong flow of preferences.

“Her primary vote will be pretty strong I would have thought, but she won’t get too many preferences,” he said.

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“Historically most people put her last.”

The Courier Mail reports Hanson is planning a scare campaign based on opposition to refugees and foreign investment, and will claim her past complaints and predictions about immigration have come true.

Hanson was the member for the Queensland seat of Oxley from 1996 to 1998 and became a hero of the far right with claims Australia was in danger of being “swamped by Asians”.

She has been a regular candidate in state and federal elections in the past two decades, and came within 0.3 per cent of winning the outback seat of Lockyer at the 2015 Queensland election.

AAP

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