After the flurry of sound and fury that was the nailbiter in Fisher, neighbouring Davenport has shaped as the forgotten by-election.

But, according to seasoned campaigners, voters who go to the polls tomorrow to elect a successor to retiring Liberal Iain Evans are feeling anything but neglected.

“It’s the first time people there are getting a proper full-blown campaign,” one Labor source told InDaily.

“The fact people are getting phone-called and door-knocked — they all think it’s great, because they haven’t had it before.”

And this is the distinction that is making Liberals very nervous. In any general election, you can pencil in the seat, nestled in the hilly enclaves of southern suburbia, for a Liberal win. Evans retained it with an 8 per cent margin last March.

But in a by-election, with that intense focus on individual candidates and local issues, strange things can happen.

Labor, content with majority Government after its Fisher boilover, has not spent money polling voters in Davenport; the Liberals have.

And they’ve been racking up hefty bills in big-spending pledges and letterboxing leaflets.

“The Liberals are certainly throwing everything at it, and that makes me think they’re not 20 per cent ahead,” says a Labor source.

That 20 per cent margin is historically, if not psychologically, pertinent: that’s the average by-election swing against any fourth term government, state or federal. Nat Cook’s Fisher victory wasn’t merely against the odds – it was the first time any fourth term government had won a seat in a by-election. Anywhere in Australia. Ever.

Premier Jay Weatherill told InDaily: “For us it would be extraordinary if we got any swing really.”

“(The Liberals) have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on this campaign, and we haven’t chosen to match that … but the impression is of the big Liberal machine coming to town to crush the local guy.”

Liberal leader Steven Marshall rejects the costing claim, saying: “It wouldn’t be close.”

“This is the same rubbish (Labor’s) run every single time,” he said.

“It’s been a well-resourced campaign, but not out of kilter with any other marginal seat campaign we’d run in a state election.”

Weatherill concedes Labor’s “lower key approach” but says it’s not one that “is necessarily going to do us any harm”.

“In fact, it could do us a lot of good,” he said.

Indeed, as far as candidates go, schoolteacher Mark Ward is a lower-key selection than Cook, who capitalised on a positive public profile.

“We weren’t particularly bullish on our chances in Fisher, but with the Fisher result we became much more invested in Davenport than we would otherwise have been,” Weatherill admitted.

If lightning strikes twice for Labor, it could be precipitated by a perfect federal storm, with Prime Minister Tony Abbott continuing to struggle in the polls, particularly after this week’s right royal own goal.

Even Marshall isn’t rushing to defend his federal leader, saying: “I certainly wouldn’t have made that appointment myself; I think our highest honour should be reserved for Australians.”

“People in this local area have an opportunity to send their federal messages during a federal election … this election is based on the interests of Davenport and South Australia,” said Marshall.

Weatherill is diplomatic on the issue, pointing to a broader voter disillusionment with political representation. Reggie Martin, the ALP’s state secretary, is less so: “The Federal Libs seem to have a predilection for doing something pretty stupid days out from a South Australian by-election.”

Labor hopes the Abbott factor “could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back” in Davenport.

Marshall’s pitch, delivered between handshakes at a Davenport shopping centre this morning, is for voters to “make a decision based on their best interests”.

“We’ve listened to the people, and the issues they’re talking about are roads and the cost of living,” he said.

“Labor’s campaign is an ‘anti-Abbott’ strategy… All I can say is we’re doing everything we can. We’ve worked extremely hard — this is my twentieth visit to Davenport this morning.”

Iain Evans himself refused to buy into the by-election machinations, despite mentoring Liberal protégé Sam Duluk through the campaign.

His only refrain, exuding neither confidence nor despondency: “The voters will do what the voters will do.”